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Прогноз численности и демографической нагрузки населения России до 2100 года
The article presents the main approaches to substantiate the hypotheses of fertility,
mortality and migration in Russia for the long term. We perform multivariate demographic fore-
cast of Russia up to 2100, which combines 30 different combinations of demographic processes,
and discuss key results of population dynamic and demographic burden. In most scenarios, pop-
ulation will decrease, including the most likely middle variant. By the mid-2070s, Russian popu-
lation could shrink by 10% up to 131 million with following growth up to 137.5 million people
by the end of the century. In the short term until the early 2030s all variants show an increase in
the demographic burden per 1,000 of population of working age, and in the longer term it repeat-
edly decreases and increases alternately with different intensity. It stands now at 627 persons and
may reach 765 in the mid-2050s according to the middle variant; however, ten years later and
subsequently it would not exceed 700. The most favorable scenarios with high fertility and life
expectancy and low migration growth put the greatest pressure on the working age population due
to the higher number of children and the elderly in these variants.