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Тенденции региональной дифференциации рождаемости при втором демографическом переходе в некоторых странах
Regional fertility differentiation is a significant factor of regional inequality in the long term. As previous studies show, the first demographic transition in developed countries, which was accompanied by the development of public institutions and means of communication, resulted in a surge in regional fertility differentiation followed by an unprecedented decrease.
In this study, an attempt is made to trace the trends of regional fertility differentiation that can be observed during the second demographic transition, when there is both an increasing normalization of the diversity of forms of family life and an increasing unification of society in terms of information about new practices in this area. For this purpose, five countries were selected. In each of them the trends associated with the second demographic transition began to emerge under different circumstances and at different times.
The study is based on an analysis of the regional variation of two indicators – the total fertility rate and the mean age at childbearing. The source of this information is the data of national statistical services. The methodology of this research includes statistical methods (analysis of variance, variation statistics) and a cartographic analysis of spatial patterns.
The study showed that in some cases there is a surge in regional variation of fertility rates, but this is more likely due to the completion of the first demographic transition. In the case of the birth calendar, the situation is different. The growth of the variation of the mean age of the mother is more stretched out over time. At the same time, the earlier the second demographic transition begins in a country, the slower the reduction in regional diversity of the age profile of fertility – in the USA and France the variation is still growing. A significant role in the formation of regional contrasts, both in the case of the total fertility rate at the early stages and in the case of the mean age at childbearing throughout the studied period, is played by the relations between «avant-garde» regions, usually formed around large developed centers, and the «catching up» periphery, while ethnic and linguistic boundaries appear almost nowhere but in the USA.