The paper analyzes the impact of nighttime alcohol trade restrictions in regions of Russia on the consumption of alcoholic beverages. Evaluation has been carried out based on the regional Rosstat data and individual data of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey by the HSE for 2009–2010. Econometric analysis has revealed a positive correlation between the amount of consumed alcohol and the duration of the allowed time for alcohol sales in the region. In addition, it has been found that night restrictions are more efficient than morning restrictions in the context of a decrease in alcohol consumption. The obtained results indicate the expediency of further tightening of the restrictive policy.
This paper describes the forecasting of crude oil prices for the next few years. This forecast is essential to strategic investors' understanding of the price at which it will be possible to sell the goods in which theyhave invested.
This paper provides an estimate of the dynamics in expenditures on health care and education made from all sources in Russia in the 1995–2012 and viewed as investments in human capital. These data from Russia are compared with those from other countries. The problems of efficiency in the functioning of these systems and different affordability of these services are considered.
The article provides an overview of methods for measuring the technological progress developed in the last 50–60 years, and analyzing the performance of national economies. A special place is given to production functions as a tool that allows one to give aggregated estimates of technological progress in the framework of different ways, including frontier analysis, i.e., (the analysis of stochastic efficiency frontier requires the SFA approach and the envelope method requires the DEA approach) and nonedge analysis (Solow residual). We have analyzed the feasibility of expanding the traditional threefactor model of production functions, including labor, physical, and human capital through the addition of two indicators, i.e., institutional development and provision of infrastructure. A review of variables available in global statistical databases and ability to approximate these production factors has been presented.
This paper considers the mathematical model of economic dynamics under the conditions of stagflation, which was previously developed by the authors and is now generalized for the case of the volatility of the national currency due to the volatility of oil prices. The model is used for the medium-term forecast of economic development in Russia up to 2020.
The article addresses the poor quality of mortality statistics due to external causes, as figures are understated in Russia and its federal subjects. The actual death rates for homicides, suicides, and alcohol poisonings in the Republic of Bashkortostan have been reviewed based on the suggested models. According to models 1–3, on average, homicide mortality is estimated to be 1.6 times higher for males and 1.4 times higher for females compared to the officially reported data; suicide mortality rates are 1.2 times higher for both genders, while fatal accidental poisonings by alcohol are 1.8 times higher among males and 2.1 times higher among females. Model 4 predicts the gain in homicide mortality to be 3.8 and 3.2 times that for males and females, respectively, and the increase in suicide mortality to be 1.4 times higher for males and 2 times higher for females. Last but not least, mortality from fatal alcohol poisoning is predicted to be 3.0 times and 5.9 times higher than the officially reported rates. The mortality rate from the all so-called external causes is expected to increase by 1.2 times among males and by 1.4 times among females, mainly due to the increase in mortality levels in working-age groups (15–60).
The article considers the conditions of developing the aviation industry for long-term prospects taking into account factors such as changes in purchasing aviation equipment, progress in developing the Russian aviation market, and works for reconstructing and modernizing transport infrastructure in the Russian Arctic. The author aims to coordinate the Government programs for developing new aviation equipment and equipment for air transport via the program of Arctic Exploration and Development, as it is necessary to integrate various cycle flows with regard to high-tech capital.
Analyzing the accounting reports of 8573 Russian companies, the article determined the threshold values of the indicators for known foreign and domestic bankruptcy probability models for ten sectors of the economy. The developed a ten-factor bankruptcy model is based on sector-specific threshold values and has a relatively high predictive power for the majority of sectors.
The article presents the results of a comparative analysis of mortality trends in two Russian capitals and two cities with population over one million, Krasnoyarsk and Rostov-on-Don, in comparison with foreign megacities (Berlin, Hong Kong, London, Los Angeles, New York, Paris, Singapore, Tokyo). From 1990 to 2015, in the Russian “model cities” the standardized mortality rates (SMR) for all causes on average decreased by almost a third: most in Moscow (44% for men and 42% for women) and less for Krasnoyarsk (22% for both men and women). An assessment of the statistical reliability of the decrease in SMR on the basis of long time series showed the absence of a positive dynamic of mortality from diseases of the digestive organs, mainly cirrhosis, which confirms the presence of the alcoholic component. Despite the sufficiently steady decline in mortality in the early 2000s, its level in Russian cities continues to significantly exceed the mortality rate in foreign megacities
We look for typological similarity or dissimilarity between the banking systems of China and Russia. In both countries we have identified a multitier and hierarchically organized system of commercial banks headed by several institutions under direct control of the government. These core state-controlled banks combine commercial banking with development banking. The difference between the Chinese and the Russian system in terms of bank relevance and directed lending was highlighted by T. Speranskaya in 2009, but now the growing state “dirigisme” gradually erodes that difference. We also suggest that the lending by the core statecontrolled banks complements budgetary funds as a source of investment into fixed assets of nonfinancial enterprises in both countries.
The article valuates structural changes in the total factor productivity for the GDP of a number of world economies based on two samples in 1990–2010. These estimates are used to study structural changes in the total factor productivity in Russia.
The article discusses the concentration of the insurance market in Russia, its influence on the state of insurance in the country and regions. The indicators of the concentration of the insurance market, including by types of insurance, are analyzed, the factors of their changes in the period of 2014–2018 are specified. Predictive estimates of the concentration of the insurance business on the basis of identified trends are given.
The present paper is a continuation of theoretical and methodological issues concerning the construction of time series of indicators of the utilization of capital, labor, and material resources (or inverse indicators of resource intensity). The indicators were differentiated by the so-called “new” and “old” elements of the productive apparatus. The paper presents the approaches to practical implementation of the developed econometric methods and the results of construction of indicators of material resources use in physical terms for the reported balance sheets.
This paper proposes a new method for estimating the effect of education on an employee’s wage: with the help of the generalized Heckman model with switching. Application of this method makes it possible to avoid the selection bias due to the endogenous accounting for nonrandom consideration of individuals both as employed and having higher education. This model makes it possible to estimate whether it is worth- while for an individual to get a higher education in terms of changes in their expected income. Analysis of the distribution of the effect of the education level on wages among employees makes it possible to evaluate the efficiency of the higher education system in providing the population with skills and competencies that are significant in the labor market.
It has been shown how static and dynamic characteristics could be used for a comparative assessment of social, environmental, and economic development, as well as the development balance in social, economic, and ecological spheres. The proposed methodological toolkit has made it possible to identify problem areas and stably manifested dynamic disproportions in the investigated regions, which require corrective actions in order to ensure sustainable development
This paper examines the evolution of support for civil industry in Russia in terms of the structure and content of the corresponding target programs and state programs. A possible solution to the problem of the recurrence of priorities and support instruments in the form of rejecting the sectoral principle of program formation is suggested.
The article presents the results of predictive studies of the development of new energy sources using the example of wind energy technologies in the countries of the North Sea Basin. Predictive estimates (based on the mathematical technique of learning curves), the dynamics of installed power and the generation of electric power by floating wind power stations, as well as the processes of replacing traditional energy with developing energy technologies in various countries, including Russia, are considered. The economic characteristics of energy technologies at an early stage of development are given.