Пульс малого бизнеса: цепные индексы как источник экспертных оценок (на основе данных «Лонгитюда малого бизнеса» ФОМ)

Социологический журнал. 2026. Т. 32. № 2. С. 32–44.

Pashkov S.

This article discusses the methodological possibilities and specific features of constructing chain indices based on longitudinal sociological data. The relevance of the study stems from the shortage of diverse socio-economic indicators for promptly tracking fluctuations in the expectations and intentions of small business owners under heightened uncertainty. The authors show that the chain index methodology is a relatively simple and convenient tool for measuring a series of categorical variables that serve as indicators. In order to obtain robust estimates, the article applies the balance method for calculating index values, followed by aggregation through averaging of partial indices, using data from the FOM Small Business Longitudinal Study, which has been conducted quarterly since 2021. On the accumulated longitudinal data, the paper substantiates an index-based methodology for measuring changes in the assessments and expectations of small business owners — the Small Business Pulse (SBP). The article provides examples of calculating the SBP as an aggregated cumulative index based on four thematic indices (entrepreneurial intentions, perception of the macroeconomic environment, assessment of structural changes, and selfassessment of the state of the business). The stability of the time series is verified using the ARIMA methodology. The results made it possible to identify the functional and analytical advantages of the four thematic indices within the SBP, as well as its analytical potential.

Keywords: малое предпринимательство, лонгитюд, цепные индексы, балансовый метод

Publication based on the results of: The Impact of External Shocks and Restrictions on the Strategies of Economic Agents in the Context of the New Reality (2025)