Изменения в рождаемости на фоне пандемии COVID-19: опыт исследования российских регионов

Мониторинг общественного мнения: Экономические и социальные перемены. 2023. № 2(174). С. 14–30.

Kazenin K., Mitrofanova E.

The paper studies the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility in Russian regions. Our central hypothesis suggests that the pandemic conduced the postponement of childbearing because the socioeconomic uncertainty increased starting with 2020. We used the data from a quantitative survey of women of reproductive ages held in June-July 2022 in three regions of Russia (Republic of Dagestan, Kirov and Tver’ regions). The choice of these regions was justified by their differences in some relevant fertility characteristics in the pre-pandemic period. 

The analysis using proportional hazard models (event history analysis) has shown that the pandemic was followed by a significant decrease in the probability of the second, but not the first births in these regions. Two possible explanations for this asymmetry of birth orders are suggested. One of them was based on the experience of earlier crises in Russia when the fertility of second children was more affected than that of the first children. Another possible explanation was based on the changes in Russia’s pronatalist policy measures implemented right before the pandemic. 

Keywords: демография, Россия, Russia, demography, COVID-19, COVID-19