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News
August 17, 2026
‘I Dream of Simple Things
Anastasia Gergenreter specialises in applied statistics and econometrics. In this interview for the Young Scientists of HSE University project, she talked about why she studies addictive substance use, two very different Fishers, and the cherry blossom season at the Main Botanical Garden in Moscow.
August 13, 2026
‘Working with AI Solves a Wide Range of Engineering Problems
Artificial intelligence is a working tool based on a balanced combination of algorithms and engineering. Experts and doctoral students from the HSE Moscow Institute of Electronics and Mathematics explain how AI technologies can improve an application, device, or system, and what engineering tasks are solved in the process.
August 12, 2026
‘I Would Like My Research to Help Make the World a Calmer and Better Place
Whatever task Saraa Ali, Junior Research Fellow at the Laboratory of Methods for Big Data Analysis (LAMBDA) of the AI and Digital Science Institute (HSE Faculty of Computer Science), is working on, she thinks about how it can benefit people. She told the Young Scientists of HSE University project about her large family, diagnosing three-phase motors, and her dream of building a children’s home in her native country.

 

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Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков

Учитель, 2022.
Editor-in-chief: Grinin L. E., Korotayev A.
Chapters
Революции: за и против
Grinin L. E., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 5–33.
In the article, the author formulates his view on revolutions, showing their pros and cons, their pros and cons in different aspects, past and present. The article discusses whether revolutions are inevitable, formulates some recommendations that theoretically can help avoid revolutions. It is shown how and why the role of revolutions is essential changes in different ...
Added: August 16, 2023
Новая волна революций в регионе Ближнего Востока и Северной Африки в глобальной перспективе
Korotayev A., Issaev L., Zinkina J. V., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 34–74.
In the late 2010s countries of the Middle East and North Africa/The MENA has been swept by a new revolutionary wave, called "Arab Spring 2.0". This article proposes a preliminary description and analysis of this revolutionary wave in the MENA region. The scale of the protests in the late 2010s approached scale of the "Arab ...
Added: August 16, 2023
Революционные и квазиреволюционные события в Южной Африке: Лесото – ЮАР – Ботсвана
Liokumovich Y., Korotayev A., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 75–95.
The risks of revolutionary destabilization in the Republic of South Africa and the Kingdom of Lesotho are considered. The quasi-revolutionary events of July 2021 in South Africa are analyzed, their main factors are considered, the risks of new waves of destabilization in this country, including possible revolutionary events, are analyzed. It is shown that, on ...
Added: August 16, 2023
Политический потенциал шиитских движений в современном Азербайджане
Askerov M. A., Ivanov Y., Shishkina A., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 96–116.
Added: August 16, 2023
Факторы возникновения и развития движения BLM в США на примере протестов 2020 г.
Zhdanov A., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 117–130.
This article examines the phenomenon of the increased protest activity of the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement in the United States of America in the summer of 2020. The author examines BLM demonstrations through the prism of traditional political science concepts of the risks of revolutionary destabilization and studies the increased activity of the BLM, ...
Added: August 16, 2023
Применение методов машинного обучения для ранжирования факторов и прогнозирования невооруженной и вооруженной революционной дестабилизации в афразийской макрозоне нестабильности
Медведев И. А., Ustyuzhanin V., Zhdanov A. et al., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 131–210.
In the article, machine learning methods are ranked by their significance factors affecting the risks of unarmed and armed revolutionary events. The analysis is a modified and improved version of the models of previous years: new dependent variables are taken, the list of independent variables is expanded, and a comparison is made with the ranking ...
Added: August 17, 2023
Регрессионное моделирование вооруженной и невооруженной революционной дестабилизации в афразийской макрозоне нестабильности
Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 211–244.
Added: August 17, 2023
Прогнозирование угроз социально-политической дестабилизации в странах афразийского макрорегиона на основе использования методов логико-математического моделирования
Malkov S. Y., Билюга С. Э., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 245–270.
The paper proposes a methodology for predicting the threats of socio-political instability using logical-mathematical modeling and a system of indices formed on its basis. For a wide sample of countries in the Afro-Asiatic macrozone, calculations were made of the dynamics of the values of these indices in the period 2008–2020. On the basis of the ...
Added: August 17, 2023
К математическому моделированию политико-демографического будущего Африки
Korotayev A., Ustyuzhanin V., Зинькина Ю. В. et al., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 271–321.
Added: August 17, 2023
К прогнозированию некоторых структурно-демографических рисков социально-политической дестабилизации в странах Северной и Западной Африки
Зинькина Ю. В., Korotayev A., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 322–362.
Явлению «молодежных бугров» и его влиянию на возникновение социально-политической нестабильности посвящено значительное количество исследований. Казалось бы, по мере завершения странами мира демографического перехода это явление должно остаться в прошлом. Однако наше исследование показывает, что для стран Африки, где сохраняется высокая рождаемость, сочетающаяся с незавершенностью урбанизационного перехода, в высшей степени релевантна такая модификация этого явления, как «городские ...
Added: August 17, 2023
К прогнозированию некоторых структурно-демографических рисков социально-политической дестабилизации в странах Восточной и Южной Африки
Зинькина Ю. В., Korotayev A., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 363–402.
Added: August 17, 2023
Исламское образование в регионах России: ключ к дерадикализации молодежи?
Shishkina A., Ivanov Y., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 479–499.
Added: August 17, 2023
О попытках совершить глобалистскую революцию. 1: Рассмотрение глобализма в «революционном» аспекте
Grinin L. E., Гринин А. Л., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 544–571.
Consisting of two linked articles, this paper discusses the question, which is of great current importance, how to interpret the rapidly accelerating changes in the world. We conclude that many of these changes, related to the green agenda and the growing volume of commitments to "rescue" the climate, as well as to COVID-19, the ongoing ...
Added: August 17, 2023
О попытках совершить глобалистскую революцию. 2: Возможна ли глобалистcкая революция и какова ее цена для мира?
Grinin L. E., Гринин А. Л., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 572–606.
Added: August 17, 2023
Соломоновы острова: протесты жителей острова Малаита
Semichev D., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022.
Океания кажется тихим местом, которому не свойственны крупные волнения, революционные эпизоды и иные потрясения. И, правда, казалось бы, какие трения и конфликты могут возникать в государствах, население которых не превышает 1 миллиона человек, а в некоторых случаях измеряется в десятках тысяч человек. Однако, даже в таких небольших постколониальных державах находятся причины для конфликтов, государственных переворотов ...
Added: May 5, 2024
Research target: Social Sciences
Language: Russian
Text on another site
Keywords: дестабилизацияdestabilizationсоциально-политическая нестабильностьinstabilityнестабильность
Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков
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Shimmering emerging adulthood: in search of the invariant IDEA model for collectivistic countries
Yerofeyeva V., Wang P., Yang Y. et al., Frontiers in Psychology 2024 No. 15 Article 1349375
Emerging adulthood is the youth trajectory characterized by self-focus, identity exploration, feeling between adolescence and adulthood, instability, and experimentation. This trajectory was first identified in industrialized individualistic countries with gender equality and technological progress. To measure transition to adulthood, the Inventory of the Dimensions of Emerging Adulthood (IDEA) was created. Although emerging adulthood is considered ...
Added: April 8, 2024
Количественный анализ факторов террористической активности: систематический обзор
Илья Сумерников, Андрей Уфимцев, Slav M. et al., Социологическое обозрение 2024 Т. 23 № 1 С. 302–356
Since the beginning of the 21st century, the number of empirical studies devoted to the analysis of factors influencing the risks of terrorist activity has increased significantly. At the same time, estimates of the impact of individual factors may differ in different studies, which is why there is a need for a generalizing work in ...
Added: April 1, 2024
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