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Революционные и квазиреволюционные события в Южной Африке: Лесото – ЮАР – Ботсвана
The risks of revolutionary destabilization in the Republic of South Africa and the Kingdom of Lesotho are considered. The quasi-revolutionary events of July 2021 in South Africa are analyzed, their main factors are considered, the risks of new waves of destabilization in this country, including possible revolutionary events, are analyzed. It is shown that, on the one hand, there is a risk of a rather bloody social revolution that may occur in the coming years, regardless of the elections; on the other hand, with the upcoming 2024 National Assembly elections, there is a risk of a relatively bloodless “electoral” revolution with very likely external interference.This revolution, of course, can happen much earlier in the very likely case of early elections. As for Lesotho, its post-independence history includes one armed uprising, one revolutionary episode that has features of both evolution and "revolution by agreement", one unarmed revolutionary episode, and several quasi-revolutionary episodes (including military coups and attempted coups). ). It is shown that at present there is a combination of an extremely low level of trust in modern political institutions with a very high level of trust in traditional institutions (traditional leaders and especially the king), which may indicate certain risks of pro-monarchist revolutionary uprisings, similar to the pro-monarchist revolutionary uprisings of 2020–2021. in Nepal, especially if an asset of pro-monarchist sentiments tries to take advantage of one of the political parties. In addition, a fairly high level of Lesotho people’s trust in the army (it is many times higher than the level of trust in the prime minister and, moreover, in the parliament) may indicate that the potential for military intervention in the political life of Lesotho remains, and hence the possibility of new military coups and revolutions. In addition, the stabilizing role of Botswana in the region was analyzed (including in connection with the events in Lesotho); this country not only develops steadily itself, but also provides significant assistance to the countries of the region in leading them out of revolutionary and quasi-revolutionary crises, primarily through the structures of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which, despite its name, performs not only economic, but and important political functions.