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Трансформационная адаптация социально-экологических систем к изменению климата: анализ теоретических подходов и потенциал применения в России
As the negative socio-economic consequences of climate change increase, attention to adaptation issues is growing worldwide. Currently, most of the adaptation measures are reactive and not very large-scale. The more ambitious approach to climate change adaptation is evident in the idea of "transformational adaptation," which is gaining growing interest in both academic discussions and international negotiations. We present an analysis of scientific papers devoted to the concept of "transformational adaptation". The sample includes 235 articles published in scientific journals indexed in the Scopus database. Three approaches to understanding the concept of "transformational adaptation" have been identified, based on its differences from traditional (incremental) adaptation. First, transformational adaptation can occur if proactive measures are taken that anticipate climate change. Secondly, adaptation measures can be called transformational if they imply fundamental changes in socio-ecological systems, including the transition from one type of system to another. Thirdly, transformational adaptation may involve the use of technologies or solutions that are innovative for the region or system. The presented approaches do not exclude each other and appear in various combinations across studies. However, we highlight some contradictions that arise between them. Firstly, there is a contradiction between proactive measures, which imply clear plans, and innovative practices, the implementation of which may be complicated when implementing long-term and detailed strategies. Secondly, different studies assess in different ways the sufficient scale of adaptation measures to recognize them as transformational: from the introduction of new crops to a complete change in the type of economic activity. Thirdly, adaptation measures that lead to fundamental changes but are reactive in nature may be recognized as transformational in some articles and not in others. Finally, there is no consensus in the scientific literature on whether the accumulation of individual incremental measures can lead to transformational changes. During the study, an analysis was also carried out of sectoral adaptation plans adopted in Russia to assess whether the proposed measures aligned with approaches to understanding of transformational adaptation. It was found that only 5% of the measures fully corresponded to at least one approach. The measures included in the plans also tended to favor an approach that implies the implementation of proactive and deliberate actions. Revealed contradictions do not yet allow us to fully integrate the concept of transformational adaptation into the process of developing policy decisions, neither internationally nor in Russia. However, they do not prevent it from playing a signaling and educational role: mentioning the concept in reports of international organizations and official documents, as well as discussion at negotiations (even without universal definitions), will prompt agencies responsible for adaptation in many countries to consider what opportunities for transformational adaptation exist in their country, taking into account the national context.