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О попытках совершить глобалистскую революцию. 2: Возможна ли глобалистcкая революция и какова ее цена для мира?
Гл. 13. С. 572–606.
Grinin L. E., Гринин А. Л.
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., Korotayev A., Conflict Management and Peace Science 2026 P. 1–23
In the field of civil war studies, there is a consensus that the risk of war decreases as income increases. Nevertheless, such consensus has not been reached in the field of civil resistance and unarmed revolutions. This paper proposes a curvilinear framework positing two opposite trends in economic development. On the one hand, it increases ...
Added: April 21, 2026
Chernomorchenko I., Чихарев И. И., Социодинамика 2026 № 3 С. 34–57
The article examines the autumn 2025 protests in Madagascar as an episode of socio-political destabilization combining features of a coupvolution and Generation Z protest mobilization. The Malagasy events represent the first case in Africa where Generation Z protests culminated in regime change, with the military playing a decisive role—aligning this episode with the coupvolutions in ...
Added: April 5, 2026
Вадим Устюжанин, Дмитрий Семичев, Леонид Гринин et al., Социологическое обозрение 2026 Т. 25 № 1 С. 9–61
The revolutionary process in the 21st century has undergone significant changes, and with the destabilization of democracy and the transformation of the world order, the number of revolutionary episodes has only increased, acquiring new goals and forms. In the countries of the Global South, as the population grew, millions of people began to come out ...
Added: March 25, 2026
Korotayev A., Andrey Zhdanov, Julia Zinkina et al., Comparative Sociology 2025 Vol. 24 No. 6 P. 801–842
Revolutionary events are increasingly likely to take unarmed forms. This trend has been observed over the past 120 years as a result of the World System transformation, wherein most societies increased their GDP per capita, experienced the spread of modern formal education, and moved from predominantly rural and very young populations to mostly urban and ...
Added: December 27, 2025
Крестьянников Е. А., Территория: журнал исторических исследований 2025 Т. 1 № 2 С. 164–200
1917 revolution and the following Civil War brought new leaders to the stage of history. A prominent example of a leading positions achievement at such historical moment is the rise of a Siberian lawyer Petr Vologodskii, who became a prime minister of Anti-Bolshevik governments. The first part of the article deals with Vologodskii’s positions in ...
Added: September 22, 2025
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series PS "Political Science". 2025. No. 1.
This article aims to shed light on the economic consequences of the nonviolent campaigns (NVCs) across the world. The current era is shaped with various political transformations that are often driven by political movements that engage in NVCs. Some of them are successful and result in regime change while others fail and are unable to ...
Added: September 12, 2025
Dmitriev T., Russian Sociological Review 2024 Vol. 23 No. 4 P. 249–258
Publications of recent years and decades demonstrate that, in addition to writing monographs and publishing collections of articles, Hannah Arendt (1906-1975), throughout her academic career in the United States, actively used the lecture genre and non-fiction articles to clarify and popularize the ideas of her political philosophy and her approach to the problems of our ...
Added: February 10, 2025
Fain, Egor, Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution UC Riverside 2024 Vol. 15 P. 106–120
A Review Essay on Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century. The New Waves of Revolutions, and the Causes and Effects of Disruptive Political Change edited by Jack A. Goldstone, Leonid Grinin and Andrey Korotayev (Springer International Publishing, 2022)& New Wave of Revolutions in the MENA Region: A Comparative Perspective edited by Leonid Issaev and ...
Added: January 31, 2025
Korotayev A., Egor Fain, Ustyuzhanin V. et al., Critical Sociology 2025 Vol. 51 No. 4-5 P. 659–677
This article is the final part of our systematic review of the substantive findings of fifth-generation revolution studies, building on the examination of the emergence and characteristics of this generation contained in the first article in the series. Our systematic review is divided into two parts. In this second and final part, the following areas ...
Added: January 30, 2025
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., Korotayev A., Экономическая социология 2025 Т. 26 № 1 С. 52–89
The article tests several hypotheses about the impact of wealth and income inequality, as well as inequality in human capital, on the risks of armed and unarmed revolutions. Using the revolutionary destabilization database from the Center for Stability and Risk Analysis (CSRA) at HSE University, along with data collected by Mark Beissinger, the study analyzes ...
Added: January 29, 2025
Korotayev A., Ustyuzhanin V., Grinin L. E. et al., / Series " ". 2024.
There are grounds for stating that in the 21st century a new ("fifth") generation of revolution studies has emerged. It can be noted that the characteristics of this generation are: a tendency towards a macro approach (both in the historical and geographical sense) together with a systemic approach; the research of separate important types of ...
Added: September 15, 2024
Ustyuzhanin V., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series PS "Political Science". 2024.
In the field of civil war studies, there is now a consensus that the risk of war decreases as average income increases. Nevertheless, such consensus has not been reached in the field of unarmed revolutions, which dominate the revolutionary process of our time. This can be explained by the fact that the researchers assumed a ...
Added: June 10, 2024
Grinin L. E., Гринин А. Л., Korotayev A., Политическая наука 2024 № 2 С. 124–150
The article examines the processes of transformation of the world system, which find expression in large, actually stadium changes. The world-System is in a phase preceding the transition to a new qualitative state, with a change in the balance of power in a variety of aspects and parameters. As part of the analysis conducted in ...
Added: June 3, 2024
Крестьянников Е. А., Вестник Томского государственного университета. История 2016 № 6(44) С. 162–163
Оценивается работа тюменского историка А.А.Кононенко, посвященная жизни города Тюмени в переломную эпоху ...
Added: February 11, 2024
Fain E., Азия и Африка сегодня 2023 № 10 С. 53–58
Статья посвящена феномену «куволюции», своеобразной комбинации революции и военного переворота, на которую сначала обратили внимание в рамках египетских событий в 2011 г., а впоследствии такие события стали происходить по всей Африке. Данная статья опирается на политические теории революций для того, чтобы построить теоретический фундамент для понимания феномена «куволюции» и приводит непосредственно эмпирические примеры того, как ...
Added: November 15, 2023
Korotayev A., Zhdanov A., Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз 2023 Т. 110 № 3 С. 149–171
The article presents a systematic review of the results of testing the political factors of revolutionary destabilization in the works attributed by the authors to the fifth generation of studies of revolutions. It is shown that, according to quantitative cross-national studies conducted to date, the same political factors can have different effects on the likelihood ...
Added: November 13, 2023
Kosevich E., Международные процессы 2023 Т. 21 № 1 С. 162–188
Autonomy has always been the focus of theoretical research in the field of international relations and foreign policy of Latin American countries. At the same time, deepening and strengthening cooperation with neighbors in the region has traditionally been an unshakable priority for all Latin American states, around which their entire foreign policy was built. The ...
Added: October 3, 2023
Ustyuzhanin V., Костин М. С., Grinin L. E. et al., Журнал социологии и социальной антропологии 2023 Т. 26 № 3 С. 53–99
Researchers of the factors of revolutionary destabilization have now quite thoroughly studied the influence on the likelihood of the outbreak of revolutions of such variables as the type of political regime, economic growth rates, or the level of GDP per capita. However, the factor of corruption remains little studied, despite anti-corruption slogans that often bring ...
Added: September 25, 2023
Grinin L. E., Гринин А. Л., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 544–571.
Consisting of two linked articles, this paper discusses the question, which is of great current importance, how to interpret the rapidly accelerating changes in the world. We conclude that many of these changes, related to the green agenda and the growing volume of commitments to "rescue" the climate, as well as to COVID-19, the ongoing ...
Added: August 17, 2023
Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 211–244.
Added: August 17, 2023
Медведев И. А., Ustyuzhanin V., Zhdanov A. et al., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 131–210.
In the article, machine learning methods are ranked by their significance factors affecting the risks of unarmed and armed revolutionary events. The analysis is a modified and improved version of the models of previous years: new dependent variables are taken, the list of independent variables is expanded, and a comparison is made with the ranking ...
Added: August 17, 2023
Liokumovich Y., Korotayev A., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 75–95.
The risks of revolutionary destabilization in the Republic of South Africa and the Kingdom of Lesotho are considered. The quasi-revolutionary events of July 2021 in South Africa are analyzed, their main factors are considered, the risks of new waves of destabilization in this country, including possible revolutionary events, are analyzed. It is shown that, on ...
Added: August 16, 2023