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МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ И ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЙ ДИНАМИКИ В XXI ВЕКЕ
Introduction. In the last quarter of the 20th century, the nature of global demographic and economic development began to change rapidly: the continuously accelerating growth of the main characteristics that had taken place over the previous two hundred years was replaced by their sharp deceleration. The article presents the preliminary results of research on mathematical modeling and forecasting of world dynamics, aimed at analyzing observed trends and carried out within the framework of the Russian Science Foundation project No. 20-61-46004 “World development and ‘limits to growth’ in the 21st century: modeling and forecasting” (supervisor - academician V.A. Sadovnichy). Materials and methods. During the research, a cognitive scheme of the interaction of various spheres of life at different stages of historical development was formed, basic dynamic equations were proposed that reflect these interactions, and a modification of these equations was substantiated in relation to different historical eras. For each historical epoch, based on the analysis of the corresponding system of equations, a phase portrait was determined and its features were analyzed. Based on this analysis, conclusions were drawn about the patterns of world development in the period under review. Results of the study. The results of mathematical modeling have shown that humanity is currently moving into a fundamentally new phase of historical development, when the old economic and social technologies (liberal capitalism, classical socialism) no longer work. There is a transition of human society to a new phase state, the shape of which has not yet been determined. Under these conditions, we are not talking about forecasting, but about designing the future in new historical conditions. The struggle of world projects begins. The project that is more successful will win. The analysis of these projects was carried out. Discussion. The materials of the article reflect the view of Russian scientists on the cardinal changes taking place in the world in recent decades, based on modeling long-term (lasting hundreds and thousands of years) macrosocial processes. An analysis of options for further world development is made. Analysis and modeling have shown that the interaction in the “society-nature” system will depend on the type of social interactions that will be formed in the future society. Conclusion. On the basis of the analysis carried out, an alternative project of the future W-society (with the conditional name “World-organism”) is proposed, based on the primacy of the principles of cooperation over the principles of competition, Russia can and should formulate. If this project is implemented, as mathematical modeling shows, it is possible to solve global problems related to ecology, global warming, and energy. This global project will make it possible to implement the ideas of prominent Russian humanist scientists on the formation of a fundamentally new integrative noospheric society at a new stage of historical development, the path to which goes through the partnership of civilizations. L.E. Grinin, N.O. Kovaleva, A.I. Andreev, S.E. Bilyuga, A.L Grinin, O.I. Davydova, D.M. Musieva, were also intensely engaged in the research, who by right should be considered as co-authors of this article.