Schools and Hospitals Close to Home: Impact of Social Infrastructure on Population Dynamics

Regional Research of Russia. 2026. Vol. 16. No. 1. P. 151–169.

Balaban M., Vasilizhenko A., Karachurina L. B., Korzh P., Mkrtchyan N. V., Panafidina I., Rodina O.

The population dynamics of settlements are determined by many different factors, including, as
research shows, the availability of educational and healthcare facilities (i.e., basic social infrastructure) close
to home. One can assume a two-way relationship: a decrease in population entails a reduction in the number
of assigned students in schools and healthcare institutions and, as a result, the optimization of social infrastructure
within walking distance; and, conversely, the closure of basic social infrastructure institutions
causes an outflow of population from such settlements. This article assesses the population’s provision of
basic education and healthcare services based on a 10% sample of Russian municipalities (226, which,
according to the 2021 census, included about 16700 settlements). It is associated with the population size of
settlements, their belonging to the suburbs of large cities and the peculiarities of the settlement system. The
analysis was carried out using descriptive statistics, regression modeling, clustering, and mapping. The results
showed that, contrary to expectations, the provision of educational and healthcare institutions in settlements
is practically not associated with the population dynamics over the last intercensal period (2011–2021).
Moreover, for relatively large settlements (with populations of over 1000 residents), a significant inverse relationship
between population dynamics and the availability of schools and healthcare facilities is found; such
a relationship is absent only with the availability of kindergartens. The results indicate that the dynamics of
population in settlements in the 2010s depends not on the provision of social infrastructure, but, above all, on
their position in the core–periphery system and the characteristics of the settlement network. The article discusses
the limitations of the calculations performed, the reasons for the obtained relationships, and suggests
directions for further research.

Keywords: settlements, population dynamics, settlement network, settlement system, basic social infrastructure

Publication based on the results of: Взаимосвязь динамики численности населения и наличия объектов социальной инфраструктуры в малых городах и сельских населенных пунктах России (2025)