The article is dedicated to the problems of justifying public investment in projects aimed at Russian cultural heritage preservation. The case study considered in the article is the project “Preservation and Development of Small Historic Towns and Settlements” (Project). The preparation of this Project involved evaluation of its economic net present value. The results of the evaluation were used to justify the feasibility of public funding of the Project. Performing an economic cost-benefit analysis required conducting surveys of different target groups of potential users of the Project’s results regarding their willingness to pay for the proposed improvements. The surveys were conducted using contingent valuation methods in two historic towns: Rostov and Chistopol. The article discusses the methodological aspects of evaluating the efficiency of public investment in Russia and other countries and presents the results of the conducted surveys and the performed calculations of the Project efficiency indicators. The calculations show that the Project is justified at the federal level from the society’s perspective, as it has a positive economic net present value and an economic internal rate of return that exceeds the social discount rate.
The paper concerns changes in air transport connectivity of Russia’s territory for the period of 1990–2015 by aggregating of adjacent airports and air hubs in 20 air clusters. The dynamics of air passenger traffic between large cities is considered as an indicator of changes in the territorial structure of the economy and population distribution in the country. Analysis has shown that disintegration of a complex, polycentric, and well-developed system of neighboring air links has taken place in post-Soviet Russia. Structure of this system has become much simpler, with pronounced overcentralization of Moscow (instead of the previous centralization) and reduction of the power of attraction of second- and third-order interregional centers. Divisional fragmentation and shrinkage of the socioeconomic space in not only the Asian but also the European part of the country have occurred. Current Russian airline system is characterized by weak neighborhood connectivity. A slow disintegration process between the western and eastern parts of the country is going.
Some categories used in Russian geography to analyze spatial aspects of social processes in cities are considered. The possibility to interpret the same terms differently is shown depending on scientific approaches and the investigation scopes applied. This paper is part of a topical collection of five articles published in this issue of the journal under the rubric “Urban Geography” and dedicated to key terms and notions used in urban studies in Russia, France, and other European countries (in addition, see also the following articles: “Cities, Rural Areas and Urbanization: Russia and the World”, “City and Countryside under WorldWide Urbanization”, “Integrated Forms of Urban Settlement Pattern in Russia, Europe, and Worldwide”, “Types of Cities in Russia and Across the Globe”).
The paper examines factors and trends of concentration of the population and economy in the capitals of 11 countries of the former Soviet Union. Differences in population concentration dynamics over the post-Soviet period have been identified: partial deconcentration during the crisis-stricken 1990s and accelerated concentration since the 2000s. Strong differences in the concentration of the economy, industry, and investments in these capitals are shown to be largely governed by the size and economic structure of their respective countries. The absence of common trends in concentration of the economy in the capitals is shown. High concentrations of housing construction and retail trade that exceed population concentration have been revealed in almost all the capitals. The degree of personal income inequality in the capitals and in the countries outside the capitals is considered, which mainly determines the directions of labor migration: to capitals or outside the national territory.
Чем отличается нынешний экономический кризис от прошлых, каким регионам легче с ним справляться, и спасет ли российскую экономику рост цен на нефть?
The dynamics of the system of cities in Russia in 1989–2010 is analyzed based on the population census data in 1989, 2002, and 2010, as well as the current population register. The extent of the decline or less often of the increase of the population size are considered for cities of different sizes for each intercensal period (1989–2002 and 2002–2010) and factors contributing to this are noted. The change in the populationsize of cities is analyzed, depending on their size and geographical location, expressed in the distance to the center of the federal subject. It turned out that in the 1990s and in the 2000s, the population of cities of different sizes, but located at a distance of up to 50 km from the regional center increased, and at greater distances the dynamics were not so welldefined. The dependence of the growth/decline of the population of cities on their size is more variable: the population of cities of different sizes both grew and declined. The dynamics of the natural increase and migration increase of cities with different sizes of population show that the higher the population size the greater the importance of migration increase as a compensator of natural decrease.
The article analyzes internal migration in Russia and identifies the main factors that influence it. The model of migration factors is estimated from panel data on Russian regions based on official Rosstat data for 1999–2010. Demographic factors, indicators of the labor market and housing, quality of life, the provision of public goods, infrastructure, and expenditures from regional consolidated budgets on various needs are considered as migration factors. Analysis showed that migration sensitivity is higher to demographic and economic factors (housing provision and per capita income), rather than to different social or other factors. Expenditures on education and healthcare in regions have the biggest impact on migration among all other regional budget expenditures.
The article examines the impact of provision of infrastructure on the economic growth dynamics of Russian regions, taking into account spatial externalities. The main hypothesis of the study is that the characteristics of provision of transport, energy, and telecommunications infrastructure affect the growth rates of the real GRP of Russian regions, but the nature of this impact depends on their specialization and level of development. The results of panel regression estimation have shown that development of the road network and mobile communications has a significant impact on the economic growth dynamics in Russian regions, and the external effects from development of the corresponding infrastructure in neighboring regions are positive. Infrastructural restrictions affect the economic growth dynamics in the less developed eastern part of the country to a greater extent than in the western part. Regions with specialization in the manufacturing benefit the most from the development of transport infrastructure in neighboring regions, as well as from the increase in the volume of generating capacity in their territory. Although in 2001–2017 the development of mobile communications had a positive impact on the economic growth dynamics in many Russian regions, due to the completion of the process of expanding mobile communications throughout the country, the possibilities of using this growth factor in the future have been all but exhausted.
The possibility of determining the branch competitiveness of regions using the shift-share analysis is considered. It allows for the revealing of the formation factors of competitiveness and evaluating their effects in terms of three directions: effect of changes in the national economy, regional development stimuli, and internal efficiency factor of a particular branch in the region. A comparative analysis is carried out, where the Central Federal District of Russia in 2005–2009 serves as an example. Graphical analysis on the basis of three parameters, namely, GRP, number of employed in the economy, and labor productivity, made it possible to decompose the branch shift of regional economies into the following components: DIF effect (contribution of a branch’s internal efficiency), MIX effect (effect of the structure of the regional economy), and the effect of national development factors. The detection of branches capable of being growth drivers for the region will make it possible for regional efficiency management entities to purposefully create favorable conditions and stimuli for the balanced development of the region.
The paper considers the dynamics of the socioeconomic development of 75 cities, administrative centers of Russian regions. The main objective of the study is to test the authors' methodology, which makes it possible to determine and classify the trajectories of change in the relative position of a city in the investigated set in each year of the period. Unlike the common analysis scheme, when situations at the beginning and end of the period are compared, the authors investigate changes over 11 years on an annual basis, i.e., the trajectory of change in the relative position of an object in the selected set. The study and comparison of the trajectories makes it possible to (a) see inflection points, i.e., the years in which the development of a city was relatively accelerated or decelerated in order to further reveal the factors of the change in trajectory and (b) to suggest a basis for grouping cities by trajectory type. The methodology calculates the city development dynamics index by integrating the nine indicators and constructing a rank vector. In addition, the characteristics of a sampling, such as the minimum and maximum values and variation coefficients, are calculated for each of the nine primary indicators for each year. Cities are grouped by the rank vectors that describe the trajectory of the dynamics. Groups of cities that are steadily growing faster than others, stably lagging behind, and with changing trajectories are identified. Hypotheses explaining the acceleration or deceleration of the development of individual cities are put forward. No significant relationship between acceleration of development and development of official strategies has been established.
We investigate fluctuations in the dynamics of social and economic development of 120 large cities of the Russian Federation in 2002–2011 based on statistical data on nine socioeconomic indices, such as pop ulation, average annual number of employees in organizations, average nominal monthly wages, etc. Cities are classified by types of trajectories based on rank vectors of dynamics calculated according to the author’s technique. Approaches to verifying the obtained social and economic performance index are suggested. The possible causes that have affected the trajectories of rank vectors of dynamics are considered in a case study of Vladivostok, Kazan, Kaluga, Volgodonsk, cities of Tyumen oblast, Rubtsovsk, Dzerzhinsk, Pskov, and Kyzyl. It has been concluded that the obtained data reflect reality and can be used to check different hypoth eses of the influence of various factors on the dynamics of the cities. The influence of one possible factor, namely, strategic planning, on the dynamics of cities is analyzed. The wellknown observation was confirmed: in modern Russia, development factors of the first nature (natural resources, geographical position) prevail over institutional factors. Strategic planning can be an additional catalyst when there are also other prerequi sites for development, but it cannot break negative trends by itself.
The problems of formation of organizational and economic mechanisms necessary to strengthen the position of Siberia in the economic space of the country were reviewed. The proposals refer to the reformation of the state regional policy and modernization of the regional strategic planning, provision of the implementation of the “Strategy of Socioeconomic Development of Siberia” and breakthroughs innovations in Siberian regions, and economic mechanisms of production development in this macroregion. A special emphasis is placed on measures for the fundamental modernization of Siberia’s mineral resource complex.
The article covers geographical and technological factors which determine the location and development of Russia’s timber industry in the market environment. Trends in the spatial pattern of Russian timber and pulp-and-paper exports in 2000–2010 are analyzed. The production pattern of timber and pulp-and-paper products is analyzed for Russia’s largest interregional timber industry manufacturers. The post-Soviet shifts in the geographies of timber resources and the relevant demand are evaluated. Synthesis of three sets of factors helps formulate a long-term forecast of the future spatial shifts in the location of the timber industry’s production facilities. Development centers are expected in regions adjacent to Irkutsk oblast that have a common border with China—the largest importer of Russian timber and pulp-and-paper products-and combine significant timber resources with a relatively dense population and infrastructure.
In conditions of intense spatial transformation of the Moscow agglomeration (MA) driven by housing construction and migration from Russian regions, study of how these processes are interrelated has become an urgent task. In the article a new model of spatial equilibrium in MA is developed. Model includes three blocks: (1) a spatial equilibrium model for the labor and housing markets in the MA; (2) a model of dynamic equilibrium between migration and housing construction in the MA; (3) a model of housing construction distribution by zones of the MA. In block 1, for three zones of the MA (the central business district, urban zone, and zone of new construction) the equilibrium values of population, employment, and wages are determined with allowance for commuting. In block 2, equilibrium is determined between the migration level and housing construction in the MA, which replicates the gap in real incomes between the MA and other Russian regions. Deviation from equilibrium leads to an adjustment of incentives for migration and a change in its level restores equilibrium. In block 3, it is shown that the behavior of developers owing to land price adjustment determines the location of construction by the MA zones. Despite the generic nature of the model, it is able to reproduce a number of trends in the spatial evolution of the MA, including the transition from an extensive stage of development with sprawling construction and hyperdensity of the center to an intense stage with in-depth development of the main “body” of the city. The model stresses how tightly related the processes in the largest agglomeration of the country and the national settlement system are. The model shows how the political and economic processes, via changes in rent and agglomeration economies, change incentives for work, living, and housing construction in different zones of the agglomeration and determine the fate of urban territories. The model also describes the influence of the internal structure of the MA on interregional migration. By increasing construction, especially of affordable housing in greenfield projects at the periphery of the agglomeration,
An analysis is performed for the impact of climate change on life satisfaction among households. The dependence of individual well-being on regional climatic parameters is quantitatively assessed. It is hypothesized that the self-reported life satisfaction among participants of panel surveys generally reflects individuals’ rational views, which can be interpreted as values of an individual utility function, whose parameters can, in turn, be estimated using a regression model. Econometric estimates of the parameters of the individual “happiness function” are made using ordered probit regression, from Rosstat data and the primary results of a nongovernmental monitoring survey of economic welfare and health of individuals and households in the Russian Federation (the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey-Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE)). It is shown that the climate factor has a significant impact on the subjective well-being of respondents, which puts climate on par with other, more conventional factors of analysis, such as income, employment, health, quality of potable water and air, etc. The results of this study can be used in economic assessments of the implications of climate change and to develop of programs aimed at preventing such change. © 2018, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.
The sector of knowledgeintensive business services (KIBS) not only contributes to its own dynamic and innovative development but also to the development of the external environment through the creation, accumulation, and dissemination of knowledge. Therefore, it is considered one of the key pillars of the knowledgebased economy. This article addresses the problem of its spatial distribution in Russia. The basis of the study is uniquely empirical, obtained through a series of largescale surveys among Russian pro ducers and consumers of KIBS. The collected data provide quantitative evidence for the spatial dimension of the sector. Comparative analysis of the production and consumption of KIBS in Russia’s federal districts makes it possible to classify the latter in terms of the exchange of related services and mapping of the intensity of their interregional supply and demand across federal districts. It is established that companies offering KIBS in Russia are largely concentrated in big cities. The demand for KIBS is more distributed, but not spa tially neutral. This paper may be of interest to researchers focusing on the spatial distribution of elements of the innovationbased economy in Russia. It is also relevant for regional authorities, because it can help them assess the development capacity of their regions.
Land relations in Russia have traditionally been one of the thorniest issues at any time. An analysis of land relations development during recent decades and the causes of many land use problems leads us to conclude that the public ownership of the majority of land and non-specified property and land use rights serve as a serious impediment to the effective use of land resources in Russia. To evaluate influence of land relations on urban development a survey of experts’ opinions was conducted in St. Petersburg. The results of the survey allowed to identify main problems in land market regulation and gaps in St. Petersburg legislation on urban development and planning. In conclusion there were defined some measures, which should be done to improve the system of land relations and urban development in Russia.
Using the secondary data sources, we identified all new factories, opened by foreign multinational corporations in Russia in 2012-2018. Almost 80% of the 261 factories opened in the last seven years are located in just 20 Russian administrative regions. Moscow (city and oblast), Kaluga oblast, St.Petersburg and Leningrad oblast, The Republic of Tatarstan, Lipetsk oblast, Nizhny Novgorod oblast and Ulyanovsk oblast are the leaders in accommodating foreign industrial investments. The majority of foreign investors preferred special economic zones and industrial parks as territories for installation of new facilities. Proximity to suppliers, availability of the local market, preferred tax regime, guaranteed infrastructure and articulated care of the local authority about the needs of foreign investors are the main factors that determine the choice of the region for industrial investments of foreign corporations.
The article assesses the dynamics of migration effectiveness by Russian regions over a long time period. Russian and foreign studies have found that people with migration experience change their place of residence more easily compared with those who have never moved. Migrants are divided into two main groups, namely, newcomers and long-time residents who have lived in a migration destination for a long time, and a transitional group from newcomers to long-time residents. Moscow, St. Petersburg, and their oblasts are subjects where migrants adapt the best. For a long time, in most Far Eastern and Siberian subjects (except for the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug), the large number of migrants who departed a region were compensated by large number of arriving migrants. The collapse of the Soviet Union and subsequent socioeconomic crisis have shown that population outflow occurs primarily in regions with the highest share of new settlers. Attempts to force the development of areas with harsh natural conditions and low adaptation by the population led to a massive return migration. Ensuring the adaptation of new settlers and their transition to long-time residents, rather than a high number of arrivals, is important for regional migration policy. Adaptation largely depends on the level of socioeconomic development of regions and particular localities.