Рынок труда индустрии моды в условиях внешнего шока: фиктивные ожидания и устойчивость

Социологические исследования. 2026. № 7. С. 31–43.

Papushina I. O., Shenkman E.

The external shocks of 2022 have altered the operating environment for Russian
companies and the demand for skilled workers. This study examines how demand has responded for
different categories of professionals in the fashion industry, where the departure of international brands
has simultaneously increased uncertainty and opened up market niches for Russian manufacturers.
The empirical basis of the research consists of data from the largest private Russian online job-vacancy
aggregator for the period from 2021 to 2024, containing over 20.9 million records. To identify fashionindustry
vacancies, a specialized selection algorithm was developed, based on lexical analysis methods and
artificial intelligence tools. Vacancy data were analyzed in dynamics, which made it possible to compare
the situation before and after the external shock of 2022. The study considered changes in the number of
enterprises posting vacancies, the dynamics of vacancy volumes across professional groups, as well as the
level of wages adjusted for inflation. Additionally, the regional structure of demand was analyzed, taking
into account differences in the development of creative industries. The interpretation of results relies on
the concepts of resilience, fictitious expectations, and creative resilience. The findings indicate that the
labor market reflects positive employer expectations and demonstrates high resilience, but suggest that a
vacancy overhang may be emerging in the fashion industry. Demand for fashion-industry specialists varies
across regions. Megacities and regions that are stable leaders in the creative-industries ranking respond
more quickly to emerging opportunities and maintain a higher growth rate in the number of vacancies
compared with other regions. The article also outlines directions for future research.

Keywords: рынок труда, creative industries, креативные индустрии, вакансии, анализ больших данных, индустрия моды, labor market, Big Data analysis, fashion industry, Job Vacancies, fictitious expectations, фиктивные ожидания