Сектор нефинансовых частных фирм в Португалии в 2001 - 2017 годах: анализ на основе гипотезы финансовой хрупкости
The article attempts to analyze the debt crisis in Portugal - as an essential component of the Great Recession in this country - using the financial fragility hypothesis developed by H. P. Minsky. Using a sample of 42 leading Portuguese non-financial private companies, the paper analyzes how the financing regimes used by these companies changed from 2001 to 2017. Before and at the height of the Great Recession, the share of firms with hedge financing mode was decreasing, while the share of firms with fragile financing regimes was increasing. Special attention is paid to how the Portuguese authorities applied austerity policies to deal with the debt crisis, and how they subsequently departed from the principles of this policy. The paper demonstrates that it was precisely after departing from the austerity doctrine of Portuguese non-financial private firms that largely managed to get rid of financial fragility.
This article attempts to analyze the current debt crisis in Greece based on the financial instability hypothesis developed by H. Minsky. This article shows that the hypothesis provides an understanding of how an economy endogenously becomes “financially fragile” and thus prone to crises. The authors analyze how public and private sector behavior in the Greek economy led to the country’s debt crisis. In particular, based on a sample of 36 Greek companies, the authors show that between 2001 and 2014, majority of those companies had switched to fragile financial structures. Special attention is devoted to the negative consequences of applying the neoclassical doctrine of “austerity measures” in Greece as the principal “anti-crisis” concept of mainstream economic science.
Long-term forecasts are of key importance for the car industry due to the lengthy period of time required for the development and production processes. With this in mind, this paper proposes new multivariate models to forecast monthly car sales data using economic variables and Google online search data. An out-of-sample forecasting comparison with forecast horizons up to 2 years ahead was implemented using the monthly sales of ten car brands in Germany for the period from 2001M1 to 2014M6. Models including Google search data statistically outperformed the competing models for most of the car brands and forecast horizons. These results also hold after several robustness checks which consider nonlinear models, different out-of-sample forecasts, directional accuracy, the variability of Google data and additional car brands.
This study examines the ways that the economic crisis in Cyprus is covered by mainstream Greek media from different (left and liberal) political affiliations. Cyprus is a country with strong historical, geographic, social, cultural, economic and political ties to Greece. Main events concerning Cyprus are followed by the Greek politicians, media and citizens with great interest. Further, Greece’s own crisis triggers an additional interest in the Cypriot crisis, as both countries agreed to ‘bailout’ agreements with the ‘troika’ (an institution composed by the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission), in exchange of severe austerity reforms, and thus, Cyprus can serve as an example to follow or to avoid, of any attempted policy of economic recovery.
Problems related to the debt crisis in Europe are highlighted
This chapter focuses on discursive constructions of creativity in the Greek public sphere in connection to the Greek government debt crisis. Instrumentalized by policy makers and pundits pursuing neoliberal reforms in Greece, creativity is understood to serve a mode of biopolitical governmentality. This is connected to the production of a national consensus over the necessity for neoliberal reforms and to the individualization of the risks and insecurity that such reforms entail. This chapter looks at specific public discursive constructions of creativity in Greece from 2010 onward. Specifically, the creativity discourse is approached in both its progressive and conservative articulations as articulated by the social democrat Giorgos A. Papandreou, Greece’s prime minister during the first years of the crisis (2009–2011), and the conservative Kyriakos K. Mitsotakis, Greece’s prime minister in 2019 and at the time of writing. Simultaneously, this chapter foregrounds the examples of success stories of creative ventures that received publicity in Greece so as to unfold other examples of a hegemonic discourse meant to motivate society on a post-political, entrepreneurial, and nationalistic basis. Such success stories develop through the didactic narratives that proliferate in Greece’s mainstream news and lifestyle media, which are meant to establish a creative paradigm as a way out of unemployment and recession. Here, creativity forms a public repertoire that fabricates the crisis into a so-called opportunity for development that is borne through entrepreneurship.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.