Рождаемость на Севере России: пространственные и этнические закономерности

Экономические и социальные перемены: факты, тенденции, прогноз. 2025. Т. 18. № 2. С. 194–211.

Smirnov A., Лыткина У. В., Чупрова Е. А.

The North of Russia comprises cities and districts that differ in fertility and reproductive behavior; this fact makes the territory an interesting object for demographic research. The paper considers fertility in the North of Russia at the regional and municipal levels, both in conditional and in real generations. Such an approach helps to identify spatial and ethnic patterns. Fertility analysis by region and ethnicity has shown a rapid decrease in differences between Russia’s constituent entities, which indicates the accelerated completion of the demographic transition in territories with high fertility. At the same time, reproductive behavior patterns within regions are becoming more diverse, which is a sign of the second demographic transition. Indicators above the level of simple reproduction are preserved only among Tuvans and some small-numbered indigenous peoples of the North. At the municipal level, fertility in conditional generations was estimated using data from the population censuses of 2010 and 2021, and in real generations by calculating the total fertility rate using the indirect standardization method for 2015–2023. We identified groups of territories in the North of Russia with high and low fertility rates. It is shown that the median fertility rate in the northern territories has decreased significantly in recent years. A correlation analysis of fertility rates and the ethnic composition of the population revealed that fertility in a municipality is determined primarily by the proportion of titular ethnic groups and small-numbered indigenous peoples of the North, and among young cohorts – only by the proportion of small-numbered peoples. The results obtained are of interest for developing demographic policy measures and making forecasts at the regional and municipal levels. In further research, it is recommended to pay attention to the dependence of fertility on the development of the social infrastructure in the North of Russia.

Keywords: рождаемость, муниципальные образования, fertility, municipalities, spatial analysis, Russian North, Север России, пространственный анализ, реальные и условные поколения