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МОДИФИЦИРОВАННАЯ ГРАВИТАЦИОННАЯ МОДЕЛЬ ОЦЕНКИ ДОСТУПНОСТИ МЕДИЦИНСКИХ УСЛУГ: ЗАДАЧА, АЛГОРИТМ И РЕАЛИЗАЦИЯ
Прикладная информатика. 2025. Т. 20. № 5 (119). С. 4–21.
Begicheva A., Бегичева С. В.
Territorial inequality in access to healthcare remains a pressing issue for the healthcare system of the Russian Federation. Significant disparities in transport accessibility, staffing levels, and the spatial distribution of medical facilities complicate evidence-based decision-making, especially in regions with uneven population density and fragmented infrastructure. This creates the need for formalized and reproducible approaches to assessing healthcare accessibility that are adapted to regional specificities and suitable for digital implementation. The aim of this study is to develop a methodology for assessing the potential accessibility of medical facilities, based on a modified gravity model and implemented as an algorithm that accounts for travel time, facility capacity, and overlapping service areas. Unlike traditional models such as 2SFCA and classical gravity models, the proposed approach allows for parameter calibration based on empirical data and incorporates territorial competition for healthcare resources. The methodological foundation includes an exponential distance-decay function and dual normalization by total service supply. The novelty of the methodology lies in the integration of these components into a unified, computable index of potential spatial accessibility suitable for scalable digital implementation. The algorithm was developed in the R programming environment using the OSRM routing engine to calculate travel times over the road network. The model was tested using data from the municipalities of Sverdlovsk oblast. The results (R² = 0.252, mean absolute percentage error MAPE < 28%) confirmed the model’s interpretability and practical relevance. The proposed approach can be used for monitoring healthcare accessibility, identifying underserved areas, and informing spatial resource allocation. Moreover, the methodology can be adapted for other types of social infrastructure.
Language:
Russian
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Added: May 26, 2026
Бегичева С. В., Begicheva A., Прикладная эконометрика 2026 № 1(81) С. 117–139
The article examines the factors of spatial accessibility of outpatient healthcare at the municipal level. The study is based on data from 65 municipalities of Sverdlovsk Region for the year 2021. A modified gravity-based accessibility index was applied, accounting for the distribution of medical personneland the transport connectivity of territories. The impact of explanatory factors ...
Added: March 27, 2026
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The North of Russia comprises cities and districts that differ in fertility and reproductive behavior; this fact makes the territory an interesting object for demographic research. The paper considers fertility in the North of Russia at the regional and municipal levels, both in conditional and in real generations. Such an approach helps to identify spatial ...
Added: March 18, 2026