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Engagement stability in online learning: can supporting attendance disrupt the Matthew effect?
Supporting student engagement is crucial, as it is a key predictor of academic success in online learning. However, little is known about whether interventions can disrupt self-reinforcing engagement patterns such as the Matthew effect. This study investigates whether personalised feedback on attendance can increase engagement levels and reduce engagement disparities in an online learning environment. We conducted an experiment in which one group of students received personalised reports with attendance analytics, a list of missed webinars for asynchronous viewing, and recommendations to attend live sessions, while a control group received no such support. Results confirmed that prior engagement strongly predicted subsequent participation, consistent with a Matthew effect pattern. The support was associated with modest improvements in synchronous engagement and more stable high participation, while showing no effect on asynchronous engagement. The intervention did not decrease persistence of low engagement, which indicates that engagement gaps persisted. These findings suggest that while personalised support may help sustain synchronous and high engagement to a certain degree, it is insufficient to disrupt cumulative disadvantages in participation.