Heuristic relative assessment of climate risks in Russian regions

Science of the Total Environment. 2025. Vol. 987. Article 179721.

A.V. Chernokulsky, I.A. Makarov, T.A. Aniskina, M.N. Chistikov, G.N. Kraev, N.K. Kurichev, A.V. Sheludkov, E.V. Smolovik, V.V. Vinogradova, O.A. Yudova

Climate risks pose a threat to the economy and the society, making their accurate assessment crucial for effective adaptation strategies. However, such estimates are complicated due to incomplete data on the potential risk-related damages. In this study, we apply a simplified heuristic approach using the hazard-exposure-vulnerability framework to assess climate risks in Russia. We focus on five climate risks identified as highly relevant to Russia in the National Adaptation Plan: heatwaves affecting urban population, water stress impacting agriculture, wildfires threatening forestry and ecosystems, extreme precipitation endangering population and infrastructure, and permafrost degradation affecting population, housing and utilities. The lack of detailed spatial economic data for exposure and vulnerability prevents the quantification of corresponding damage functions; therefore, we heuristically select the best available parameters presented for all regions that can reliably characterise three risk components. We use the current state for exposure and vulnerability indicators and projected changes to the mid-21st century under different SSP-scenarios for hazard indicators. Using normalised values of indicators, we estimate the relative level of each risk and rank the Russian regions accordingly, highlighting territories with the highest need for adaptation to climate change. The results demonstrate the uneven allocation of climate risks across Russian territory. Russia's southwest faces primarily risks related to heatwaves and water stress, the northeast deals with the risks associated with permafrost and forest fires, while the southeast faces mainly with flood-related risks. We identify regions having multiple overlapping risks, emphasising the importance of integrated adaptation strategies to address the potential nonlinear impacts of these risks.

Keywords: adaptation, climate change, vulnerability, exposure, permafrost, forest fires, Heatwaves, hazard

Publication based on the results of: Risks and opportunities for Russia's socio-economic development in integrated scenarios of climate change and low-carbon transformation of the global economy (2024)