Коррупция и революционная дестабилизация: опыт количественного анализа

Журнал социологии и социальной антропологии. 2023. Т. 26. № 3. С. 53–99.

Ustyuzhanin V., Костин М. С., Grinin L. E., Korotayev A.

Researchers of the factors of revolutionary destabilization have now quite thoroughly studied the influence on the likelihood of the outbreak of revolutions of such variables as the type of political regime, economic growth rates, or the level of GDP per capita. However, the factor of corruption remains little studied, despite anti-corruption slogans that often bring people to the streets. As a number of studies show, corruption can have both a positive effect on the stability of the regime through the mechanism of co-optation of counter-elites, and a destructive effect, reducing the efficiency of the state apparatus and increasing inequality. We test hypotheses about the presence and direction of the possible influence of various types of corruption, on the one hand, and unarmed as well as armed revolutionary destabilization, on the other. Having carried out a correlation analysis of this influence, we found that all types of corruption and revolutionary destabilization demonstrate a fairly strong positive correlation with each other. Having constructed contingency tables, we also found out that the destabilization of the armed
and the unarmed type reacts differently to corruption: a more linear character is recorded for armed revolutionary uprisings and a rather pronounced curvilinearity for the unarmed. The results of the study allow us to draw a number of theoretical conclusions about the impact of corruption on
various types of revolutionary destabilization, and also confirm the need to include the factor of corruption when conducting quantitative studies of the processes of revolutionary destabilization. The cause-and-effect relationships between the two phenomena nevertheless require further study.
In conclusion, we pose a number of controversial issues that can serve as a basis for future research on the relationship between corruption and revolutionary destabilization.

Keywords: коррупция, revolution, corruption, протесты, protests, революции, nonviolent campaigns, violent campaigns, cooptation kotralit, ненасильственные кампании, насильственные кампании, кооптация контрэлит

Publication based on the results of: Mechanisms and factors of stability of socio-political systems of the "Afrasian" macro zone of instability (2023)