• A
  • A
  • A
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
Обычная версия сайта
  • RU
  • EN
  • HSE University
  • Publications
  • Book chapter
  • О структурно-демографических факторах вооруженных исламистских революционных выступлений в странах группы G5 Сахель
  • RU
  • EN
Расширенный поиск
Высшая школа экономики
Национальный исследовательский университет
Priority areas
  • business informatics
  • economics
  • engineering science
  • humanitarian
  • IT and mathematics
  • law
  • management
  • mathematics
  • sociology
  • state and public administration
by year
  • 2027
  • 2026
  • 2025
  • 2024
  • 2023
  • 2022
  • 2021
  • 2020
  • 2019
  • 2018
  • 2017
  • 2016
  • 2015
  • 2014
  • 2013
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009
  • 2008
  • 2007
  • 2006
  • 2005
  • 2004
  • 2003
  • 2002
  • 2001
  • 2000
  • 1999
  • 1998
  • 1997
  • 1996
  • 1995
  • 1994
  • 1993
  • 1992
  • 1991
  • 1990
  • 1989
  • 1988
  • 1987
  • 1986
  • 1985
  • 1984
  • 1983
  • 1982
  • 1981
  • 1980
  • 1979
  • 1978
  • 1977
  • 1976
  • 1975
  • 1974
  • 1973
  • 1972
  • 1971
  • 1970
  • 1969
  • 1968
  • 1967
  • 1966
  • 1965
  • 1964
  • 1963
  • 1958
  • More
Subject
News
June 4, 2026
Machine Learning Models Can Help Reduce Volatility and Boost Stock Market Returns
The use of machine learning models makes it possible to achieve greater accuracy in predicting risks in the Russian stock market compared to classical econometric approaches. The predictive power of these models increases by 23%, while the average investor’s return can reach up to 13% per annum. These conclusions were drawn by Nikita Lysenok from the Department of Financial Market Infrastructure at the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences. The paper has been published in Fundamental and Applied Mathematics.
June 3, 2026
Pocket Money, Personal Interest, and Family Practices: What Shapes Students Economic Literacy?
University students' economic literacy depends not only on their field of study but also on their interest in economics, the learning environment, and family financial practices. For example, students who received pocket money irregularly tend to perform better on economic literacy tests than their peers who received financial support on a regular basis. These findings come from a study conducted by HSE University involving more than 1,100 students from five Russian universities. The findings have been published in Cakrawala Pendidikan.
June 3, 2026
Creative Work as a Remedy for Burnout
The creative, supportive atmosphere and innovative methods at the Centre for Sociocultural Research make it appealing to early-career scholars. Over years of working at HSE University, they grow into researchers and lecturers recognised both in Russia and abroad. Chief Research Fellow Zarina Lepshokova and Leading Research Fellow Ekaterina Bushina spoke about their journey at the centre and at HSE, their research, and the role of mentors in their academic success.

 

Have you spotted a typo?
Highlight it, click Ctrl+Enter and send us a message. Thank you for your help!

Publications
  • Books
  • Articles
  • Chapters of books
  • Working papers
  • Report a publication
  • Research at HSE

?

О структурно-демографических факторах вооруженных исламистских революционных выступлений в странах группы G5 Сахель

Гл. 15. С. 451–474.
Korotayev A., Ustyuzhanin V.
Language: Russian
Full text
Text on another site
Keywords: структурно-демографические рискиреволюцииАфразийская макрозона нестабильностиСахаро-Сахельский регион

In book

Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков
Т. 12: Революционные процессы в афразийской макрозоне нестабильности и их глобальный контекст. , Издательство "Учитель", 2021.
Similar publications
Economic development and revolutions. A cross-national investigation
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., Korotayev A., Conflict Management and Peace Science 2026 P. 1–23
In the field of civil war studies, there is a consensus that the risk of war decreases as income increases. Nevertheless, such consensus has not been reached in the field of civil resistance and unarmed revolutions. This paper proposes a curvilinear framework positing two opposite trends in economic development. On the one hand, it increases ...
Added: April 21, 2026
Новые возможности анализа революций: представление базы данных революций XXI века
Вадим Устюжанин, Дмитрий Семичев, Леонид Гринин et al., Социологическое обозрение 2026 Т. 25 № 1 С. 9–61
The revolutionary process in the 21st century has undergone significant changes, and with the destabilization of democracy and the transformation of the world order, the number of revolutionary episodes has only increased, acquiring new goals and forms. In the countries of the Global South, as the population grew, millions of people began to come out ...
Added: March 25, 2026
Западные механизмы управления региональной безопасностью и их уязвимости на примере Балканского и Сахаро-Сахельского регионов
Entina E., Pivovarenko A., Nadzharov A. et al., М.: Фонд Горчакова, 2025.
В теоретическом отношении ставится задача сравнения практик управления двумя периферийными регионами — Балканским полуостровом (Юго-Восточная Европа) и Сахелем (Западная Африка) — с выявлением общего и особенного в области политических, экономических и социальных практик, связанных с влиянием Запада. В прикладном отношении задачей проекта является выявление перспективных тенденций, связанных с западным военным присутствием. Представляется, что исчерпание ресурсов в ...
Added: February 12, 2026
Why Do Revolutions Tend to Become Less Violent? Some Explanations of the Global Trend
Korotayev A., Andrey Zhdanov, Julia Zinkina et al., Comparative Sociology 2025 Vol. 24 No. 6 P. 801–842
Revolutionary events are increasingly likely to take unarmed forms. This trend has been observed over the past 120 years as a result of the World System transformation, wherein most societies increased their GDP per capita, experienced the spread of modern formal education, and moved from predominantly rural and very young populations to mostly urban and ...
Added: December 27, 2025
К исследованию динамики государственной состоятельности и государственной устойчивости стран "афразийской" макрозоны нестабильности в условиях трансформации мирового порядка
А.В. Коротаев, В.В. Устюжанин, Ю.В. Зинькина et al., История и современность 2025 № 3 (57) С. 21–68
The article examines the trends affecting state activity and sustainability in the countries of the Afro-Asian macro-stability zone, which are considered in the context of the transformation of the world order and the associated process of reconfiguration of the World System. An attempt has been made to use the concept of state solvency to build ...
Added: November 27, 2025
Short-Term Shocks, Long-Term Shifts: Nonviolent Political Movements and Economic Activity
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series PS "Political Science". 2025. No. 1.
This article aims to shed light on the economic consequences of the nonviolent campaigns (NVCs) across the  world. The current era is shaped with various political transformations that are often driven by political movements  that engage in NVCs. Some of them are successful and result in regime change while others fail and are unable to ...
Added: September 12, 2025
Never Ending Revolutions
Fain, Egor, Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution UC Riverside 2024 Vol. 15 P. 106–120
A Review Essay on Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century. The New Waves of Revolutions, and the Causes and Effects of Disruptive Political Change edited by Jack A. Goldstone, Leonid Grinin and Andrey Korotayev (Springer International Publishing, 2022)& New Wave of Revolutions in the MENA Region: A Comparative Perspective edited by Leonid Issaev and ...
Added: January 31, 2025
The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. Part III: A Systematic Review of Substantive Findings (Repression, Success, and Outcomes of Revolutions)
Korotayev A., Egor Fain, Ustyuzhanin V. et al., Critical Sociology 2025 Vol. 51 No. 4-5 P. 659–677
This article is the final part of our systematic review of the substantive findings of fifth-generation revolution studies, building on the examination of the emergence and characteristics of this generation contained in the first article in the series. Our systematic review is divided into two parts. In this second and final part, the following areas ...
Added: January 30, 2025
Влияние экономического неравенства на вероятность революционных событий: международный опыт 1995–2021 гг.
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., Korotayev A., Экономическая социология 2025 Т. 26 № 1 С. 52–89
The article tests several hypotheses about the impact of wealth and income inequality, as well as inequality in human capital, on the risks of armed and unarmed revolutions. Using the revolutionary destabilization database from the Center for Stability and Risk Analysis (CSRA) at HSE University, along with data collected by Mark Beissinger, the study analyzes ...
Added: January 29, 2025
Сирия: вызовы, перспективы и уроки на будущее
Nadzharov A., Мелоян Т. Х., Россия в глобальной политике 2025
Сохранение российского военного присутствия в Сирии остаётся центральным вопросом для Москвы в рамках ближневосточного вектора внешней политики. Авиабаза в Хмеймиме и порт Тартус представляют собой ключевые точки российского проецирования силы на Ближнем Востоке и в Сахеле. Стоит рассмотреть возможность создания новых маршрутов, в частности через Сенегал, Гвинею, Экваториальную Гвинею. Не менее важно прагматично выстроить политику в ...
Added: January 9, 2025
The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies? A systematic review
Korotayev A., Ustyuzhanin V., Grinin L. E. et al., / Series " ". 2024.
There are grounds for stating that in the 21st century a new ("fifth") generation of revolution studies has emerged. It can be noted that the characteristics of this generation are: a tendency towards a macro approach (both in the historical and geographical sense) together with a systemic approach; the research of separate important types of ...
Added: September 15, 2024
Wealth and Rebellion: A Dualistic Perspective on Income Level and Revolutions
Ustyuzhanin V., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series PS "Political Science". 2024.
In the field of civil war studies, there is now a consensus that the risk of war decreases as average income increases. Nevertheless, such consensus has not been reached in the field of unarmed revolutions, which dominate the revolutionary process of our time. This can be explained by the fact that the researchers assumed a ...
Added: June 10, 2024
Significance of the Fezzan Region in French Policy in Libya and the Sahel
Nadzharov A., Международная аналитика 2023 Т. 14 № 2 С. 166–182
На протяжении ста лет с момента французской колонизации Чада и Нигера ливийский регион Феццан играл значительную роль во французской стратегии на ливийском направлении. Определяющим фактором в значении региона для политики Парижа стали транснациональные процессы феццанского приграничья. Этническая близость Феццана и северных регионов сахельских стран была катализатором франко-ливийских столкновений в Чаде в 1900-е гг., когда колонизаторы столкнулись с сопротивлением ордена ...
Added: May 28, 2024
EU Approaches to Managing Migration Flows in the Sahel and Their Implications for the Region
Nadzharov A., Entina E., Международная аналитика 2023 Т. 14 № 3 С. 74–92
С начала прошлого десятилетия Европейский союз активно вовлечен в политические процессы в Сахеле. Регион, в котором расположены беднейшие страны мира, стал приоритетом внешней политики Брюсселя во многом из-за европейского миграционного кризиса (2014–2015). Через дестабилизированный транснациональным терроризмом регион в Европу стремились сотни тысяч человек. В ответ на это ЕС начал выстраивать комплексную систему управления миграционными потоками: ...
Added: May 28, 2024
Рецензия: Кононенко А.А. Тюмень на рубеже веков: город и его жители в 1900–1917 гг. Тюмень: ИД «Титул», 2014. 132 с.: 4 ил.
Крестьянников Е. А., Вестник Томского государственного университета. История 2016 № 6(44) С. 162–163
Оценивается работа тюменского историка А.А.Кононенко, посвященная жизни города Тюмени в переломную эпоху ...
Added: February 11, 2024
Феномен «куволюций» в странах Африки
Fain E., Азия и Африка сегодня 2023 № 10 С. 53–58
Статья посвящена феномену «куволюции», своеобразной комбинации революции и военного переворота, на которую сначала обратили внимание в рамках египетских событий в 2011 г., а впоследствии такие события стали происходить по всей Африке. Данная статья опирается на политические теории революций для того, чтобы построить теоретический фундамент для понимания феномена «куволюции» и приводит непосредственно эмпирические примеры того, как ...
Added: November 15, 2023
Количественный анализ политических факторов революционной дестабилизации
Korotayev A., Zhdanov A., Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз 2023 Т. 110 № 3 С. 149–171
The article presents a systematic review of the results of testing the political factors of revolutionary destabilization in the works attributed by the authors to the fifth generation of studies of revolutions. It is shown that, according to quantitative cross-national studies conducted to date, the same political factors can have different effects on the likelihood ...
Added: November 13, 2023
Коррупция и революционная дестабилизация: опыт количественного анализа
Ustyuzhanin V., Костин М. С., Grinin L. E. et al., Журнал социологии и социальной антропологии 2023 Т. 26 № 3 С. 53–99
Researchers of the factors of revolutionary destabilization have now quite thoroughly studied the influence on the likelihood of the outbreak of revolutions of such variables as the type of political regime, economic growth rates, or the level of GDP per capita. However, the factor of corruption remains little studied, despite anti-corruption slogans that often bring ...
Added: September 25, 2023
Securitisation initiatives and the lingering security challenges in Sub-Saharan Sahel region: An appraisal
Idahosa S. O., Denis Andreevich Degterev, Ikhidero S. I., African Security Review 2021 Vol. 30 No. 3 P. 338–367
Security in the Sahel region has traditionally been studied through a realist prism, emphasising military concerns and the pre-eminent influence of great powers in shaping local security concerns. The paper reviews the securitisation initiatives in Africa's Sahel. It specifically explores Buzan and Waever's ‘securitisation' framework to re-evaluate securitising discourse and the contemporary initiatives of the ...
Added: September 7, 2023
О попытках совершить глобалистскую революцию. 2: Возможна ли глобалистcкая революция и какова ее цена для мира?
Grinin L. E., Гринин А. Л., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 572–606.
Added: August 17, 2023
О попытках совершить глобалистскую революцию. 1: Рассмотрение глобализма в «революционном» аспекте
Grinin L. E., Гринин А. Л., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 544–571.
Consisting of two linked articles, this paper discusses the question, which is of great current importance, how to interpret the rapidly accelerating changes in the world. We conclude that many of these changes, related to the green agenda and the growing volume of commitments to "rescue" the climate, as well as to COVID-19, the ongoing ...
Added: August 17, 2023
Регрессионное моделирование вооруженной и невооруженной революционной дестабилизации в афразийской макрозоне нестабильности
Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 211–244.
Added: August 17, 2023
Применение методов машинного обучения для ранжирования факторов и прогнозирования невооруженной и вооруженной революционной дестабилизации в афразийской макрозоне нестабильности
Медведев И. А., Ustyuzhanin V., Zhdanov A. et al., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 131–210.
In the article, machine learning methods are ranked by their significance factors affecting the risks of unarmed and armed revolutionary events. The analysis is a modified and improved version of the models of previous years: new dependent variables are taken, the list of independent variables is expanded, and a comparison is made with the ranking ...
Added: August 17, 2023
Революционные и квазиреволюционные события в Южной Африке: Лесото – ЮАР – Ботсвана
Liokumovich Y., Korotayev A., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 75–95.
The risks of revolutionary destabilization in the Republic of South Africa and the Kingdom of Lesotho are considered. The quasi-revolutionary events of July 2021 in South Africa are analyzed, their main factors are considered, the risks of new waves of destabilization in this country, including possible revolutionary events, are analyzed. It is shown that, on ...
Added: August 16, 2023
  • About
  • About
  • Key Figures & Facts
  • Sustainability at HSE University
  • Faculties & Departments
  • International Partnerships
  • Faculty & Staff
  • HSE Buildings
  • HSE University for Persons with Disabilities
  • Public Enquiries
  • Studies
  • Admissions
  • Programme Catalogue
  • Undergraduate
  • Graduate
  • Exchange Programmes
  • Summer University
  • Summer Schools
  • Semester in Moscow
  • Business Internship
  • Research
  • International Laboratories
  • Research Centres
  • Research Projects
  • Monitoring Studies
  • Conferences & Seminars
  • Academic Jobs
  • Yasin (April) International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development
  • Media & Resources
  • Publications by staff
  • HSE Journals
  • Publishing House
  • iq.hse.ru: commentary by HSE experts
  • Library
  • Economic & Social Data Archive
  • Video
  • HSE Repository of Socio-Economic Information
  • HSE1993–2026
  • Contacts
  • Copyright
  • Privacy Policy
  • Site Map
Edit