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О структурно-демографических факторах вооруженных исламистских революционных выступлений в странах группы G5 Сахель
Гл. 15. С. 451–474.
In book
Т. 12: Революционные процессы в афразийской макрозоне нестабильности и их глобальный контекст. , Издательство "Учитель", 2021.
Talking about the [same] revolution? A comparative analysis of main datasets of revolutionary events
Guseinov R., Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., Defence and peace economics 2026 P. 1–31
We conduct a comparative analysis of the main datasets on revolutionary events, including The Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes (NAVCO, versions 1.3 and 2.1), Cross-National Time-Series (CNTS), Revolutionary Episodes Dataset by Mark Beissinger, Revolutionary Database by HSE University (CSRA), and Historical Regime Data (HRD). To compare these sources systematically, we develop several complementary empirical instruments designed to identify and interpret differences across datasets. We ...
Added: July 17, 2026
Гусейнов Р. И., Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., Вестник Пермского университета. Серия: Политология 2026 Т. 20 № 2 С. 15–27
This paper investigates the relationship between fiscal stability and revolutionary onsets. Classic researchers of revolutions, such as Jack Goldstone, have provided theoretical arguments for the importance of fiscal factors, but any substantial quantitative cross-national large-n research has not been conducted yet. Logistic regression analysis with an interaction term that we have performed confirms our main ...
Added: July 2, 2026
Zhdanov A., Korotayev A., Социология власти 2026 Т. 38 № 2 С. 118–167
Imagining a cosmic future touches on many topics — but typically avoids the topic of death, burial, and attitudes toward deceased ancestors. Most of these developments concern life-support systems. This article analyzes the debate between American anthropologist Elizabeth Povinelli and Russian cosmists. The subject of this debate is immortality and attitudes toward ancestors in the ...
Added: June 29, 2026
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., Korotayev A., Conflict Management and Peace Science 2026 P. 1–23
In the field of civil war studies, there is a consensus that the risk of war decreases as income increases. Nevertheless, such consensus has not been reached in the field of civil resistance and unarmed revolutions. This paper proposes a curvilinear framework positing two opposite trends in economic development. On the one hand, it increases ...
Added: April 21, 2026
Вадим Устюжанин, Дмитрий Семичев, Леонид Гринин et al., Социологическое обозрение 2026 Т. 25 № 1 С. 9–61
The revolutionary process in the 21st century has undergone significant changes, and with the destabilization of democracy and the transformation of the world order, the number of revolutionary episodes has only increased, acquiring new goals and forms. In the countries of the Global South, as the population grew, millions of people began to come out ...
Added: March 25, 2026
Entina E., Pivovarenko A., Nadzharov A. et al., М.: Фонд Горчакова, 2025.
В теоретическом отношении ставится задача сравнения практик управления двумя периферийными регионами — Балканским полуостровом (Юго-Восточная Европа) и Сахелем (Западная Африка) — с выявлением общего и особенного в области политических, экономических и социальных практик, связанных с влиянием Запада.
В прикладном отношении задачей проекта является выявление перспективных тенденций, связанных с западным военным присутствием. Представляется, что исчерпание ресурсов в ...
Added: February 12, 2026
А.В. Коротаев, В.В. Устюжанин, Ю.В. Зинькина et al., История и современность 2025 № 3 (57) С. 21–68
The article examines the trends affecting state activity and sustainability in the countries of the Afro-Asian macro-stability zone, which are considered in the context of the transformation of the world order and the associated process of reconfiguration of the World System. An attempt has been made to use the concept of state solvency to build ...
Added: November 27, 2025
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series PS "Political Science". 2025. No. 1.
This article aims to shed light on the economic consequences of the nonviolent campaigns (NVCs) across the world. The current era is shaped with various political transformations that are often driven by political movements that engage in NVCs. Some of them are successful and result in regime change while others fail and are unable to ...
Added: September 12, 2025
Fain, Egor, Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution UC Riverside 2024 Vol. 15 P. 106–120
A Review Essay on Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century. The New Waves of Revolutions, and the Causes and Effects of Disruptive Political Change edited by Jack A. Goldstone, Leonid Grinin and Andrey Korotayev (Springer International Publishing, 2022)& New Wave of Revolutions in the MENA Region: A Comparative Perspective edited by Leonid Issaev and ...
Added: January 31, 2025
Korotayev A., Egor Fain, Ustyuzhanin V. et al., Critical Sociology 2025 Vol. 51 No. 4-5 P. 659–677
This article is the final part of our systematic review of the substantive findings of fifth-generation revolution studies, building on the examination of the emergence and characteristics of this generation contained in the first article in the series. Our systematic review is divided into two parts. In this second and final part, the following areas ...
Added: January 30, 2025
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., Korotayev A., Экономическая социология 2025 Т. 26 № 1 С. 52–89
The article tests several hypotheses about the impact of wealth and income inequality, as well as inequality in human capital, on the risks of armed and unarmed revolutions. Using the revolutionary destabilization database from the Center for Stability and Risk Analysis (CSRA) at HSE University, along with data collected by Mark Beissinger, the study analyzes ...
Added: January 29, 2025
Nadzharov A., Мелоян Т. Х., Россия в глобальной политике 2025
Сохранение российского военного присутствия в Сирии остаётся центральным вопросом для Москвы в рамках ближневосточного вектора внешней политики. Авиабаза в Хмеймиме и порт Тартус представляют собой ключевые точки российского проецирования силы на Ближнем Востоке и в Сахеле. Стоит рассмотреть возможность создания новых маршрутов, в частности через Сенегал, Гвинею, Экваториальную Гвинею. Не менее важно прагматично выстроить политику в ...
Added: January 9, 2025
Korotayev A., Ustyuzhanin V., Grinin L. E. et al., / Series " ". 2024.
There are grounds for stating that in the 21st century a new ("fifth") generation of revolution studies has emerged. It can be noted that the characteristics of this generation are: a tendency towards a macro approach (both in the historical and geographical sense) together with a systemic approach; the research of separate important types of ...
Added: September 15, 2024
Ustyuzhanin V., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series PS "Political Science". 2024.
In the field of civil war studies, there is now a consensus that the risk of war decreases as average income increases. Nevertheless, such consensus has not been reached in the field of unarmed revolutions, which dominate the revolutionary process of our time. This can be explained by the fact that the researchers assumed a ...
Added: June 10, 2024
Nadzharov A., Международная аналитика 2023 Т. 14 № 2 С. 166–182
На протяжении ста лет с момента французской колонизации Чада и Нигера ливийский регион Феццан играл значительную роль во французской стратегии на ливийском направлении. Определяющим фактором в значении региона для политики Парижа стали транснациональные процессы феццанского приграничья. Этническая близость Феццана и северных регионов сахельских стран была катализатором франко-ливийских столкновений в Чаде в 1900-е гг., когда колонизаторы столкнулись с сопротивлением ордена ...
Added: May 28, 2024
Nadzharov A., Entina E., Международная аналитика 2023 Т. 14 № 3 С. 74–92
С начала прошлого десятилетия Европейский союз активно вовлечен в политические процессы в Сахеле. Регион, в котором расположены беднейшие страны мира, стал приоритетом внешней политики Брюсселя во многом из-за европейского миграционного кризиса (2014–2015). Через дестабилизированный транснациональным терроризмом регион в Европу стремились сотни тысяч человек. В ответ на это ЕС начал выстраивать комплексную систему управления миграционными потоками: ...
Added: May 28, 2024
Крестьянников Е. А., Вестник Томского государственного университета. История 2016 № 6(44) С. 162–163
Оценивается работа тюменского историка А.А.Кононенко, посвященная жизни города Тюмени в переломную эпоху ...
Added: February 11, 2024
Fain E., Азия и Африка сегодня 2023 № 10 С. 53–58
Статья посвящена феномену «куволюции», своеобразной комбинации революции и военного переворота, на которую сначала обратили внимание в рамках египетских событий в 2011 г., а впоследствии такие события стали происходить по всей Африке. Данная статья опирается на политические теории революций для того, чтобы построить теоретический фундамент для понимания феномена «куволюции» и приводит непосредственно эмпирические примеры того, как ...
Added: November 15, 2023
Korotayev A., Zhdanov A., Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз 2023 Т. 110 № 3 С. 149–171
The article presents a systematic review of the results of testing the political factors of revolutionary destabilization in the works attributed by the authors to the fifth generation of studies of revolutions. It is shown that, according to quantitative cross-national studies conducted to date, the same political factors can have different effects on the likelihood ...
Added: November 13, 2023
Ustyuzhanin V., Костин М. С., Grinin L. E. et al., Журнал социологии и социальной антропологии 2023 Т. 26 № 3 С. 53–99
Researchers of the factors of revolutionary destabilization have now quite thoroughly studied the influence on the likelihood of the outbreak of revolutions of such variables as the type of political regime, economic growth rates, or the level of GDP per capita. However, the factor of corruption remains little studied, despite anti-corruption slogans that often bring ...
Added: September 25, 2023
Idahosa S. O., Denis Andreevich Degterev, Ikhidero S. I., African Security Review 2021 Vol. 30 No. 3 P. 338–367
Security in the Sahel region has traditionally been studied through a realist prism, emphasising military concerns and the pre-eminent influence of great powers in shaping local security concerns. The paper reviews the securitisation initiatives in Africa's Sahel. It specifically explores Buzan and Waever's ‘securitisation' framework to re-evaluate securitising discourse and the contemporary initiatives of the ...
Added: September 7, 2023
Grinin L. E., Гринин А. Л., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 572–606.
Added: August 17, 2023
Grinin L. E., Гринин А. Л., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.: Учитель, 2022. Гл. 13 С. 544–571.
Consisting of two linked articles, this paper discusses the question, which is of great current importance, how to interpret the rapidly accelerating changes in the world. We conclude that many of these changes, related to the green agenda and the growing volume of commitments to "rescue" the climate, as well as to COVID-19, the ongoing ...
Added: August 17, 2023