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The Phenomenon and Theories of Revolutions
P. 37–68.
Publication based on the results of:
In book
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., Karasev D., Rozov N., Grinin A., Selbin E., Mitchell L., Goldstone J. Springer, 2022.
А.И. Жданов, А.В. Коротаев, Социологические исследования 2026 № 9 С. 3–15
The study examines the impact of digital technologies – primarily the Internet and social media – on the likelihood of revolutionary processes emerging in the 21st century. Based on an analysis of panel data for countries around the world in the 21st century and the use of logistic regression for rare events, it is shown ...
Added: October 13, 2026
Korotayev A., Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution UC Riverside 2026 Vol. 17 No. 2 P. 1–38
This paper examines the striking mathematical correspondence between two independently derived hyperbolic equations describing global evolutionary dynamics: Panov's time series of "biospheric revolutions" spanning 4 billion years of biological and cultural evolution, and von Foerster's famous "Doomsday" equation for world population growth (1960). Both phenomena are governed by equations of the form y = C/(2027 ...
Added: September 29, 2026
Ustyuzhanin V., Zinkina J. V., Korotayev A., / Series "SocArXiv". 2026.
“Leaderlessness” is widely held to be a defining feature of contemporary mass mobilization, yet the claim rests on a handful of recent cases. We offer the first systematic cross-national analysis of this phenomenon from 1791 to 2019. We show that the absence of leadership is real but older and more modest than claimed: the share ...
Added: August 29, 2026
Korotayev A., Guseinov R., Ustyuzhanin V., Political Studies Review 2026 P. 1–22
In recent years, a kind of “Berlin Wall” has emerged between the study of “revolutions” and “maximalist campaigns.” Although scholars in these two traditions analyze closely related phenomena, they use different terminology, bodies of literature, and empirical conventions. We argue that this separation is analytically costly and prevents fruitful dialogue. On one hand, this leads ...
Added: August 8, 2026
Fain E., Korotayev A., Полис. Политические исследования 2026 № 4 С. 170–183
In the 21st century, the theory of revolutions has encountered a number of theoretical and practical difficulties, the main one being the conceptualization of revolutions. At the moment, the theory needs new focuses and approaches. One potential innovation that could enrich the theory is the concept of “coupvolution”, which emerged after the Egyptian Revolution of ...
Added: July 30, 2026
Talking about the [same] revolution? A comparative analysis of main datasets of revolutionary events
Guseinov R., Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., Defence and peace economics 2026 P. 1–31
We conduct a comparative analysis of the main datasets on revolutionary events, including The Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes (NAVCO, versions 1.3 and 2.1), Cross-National Time-Series (CNTS), Revolutionary Episodes Dataset by Mark Beissinger, Revolutionary Database by HSE University (CSRA), and Historical Regime Data (HRD). To compare these sources systematically, we develop several complementary empirical instruments designed to identify and interpret differences across datasets. We ...
Added: July 17, 2026
Гусейнов Р. И., Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., Вестник Пермского университета. Серия: Политология 2026 Т. 20 № 2 С. 15–27
This paper investigates the relationship between fiscal stability and revolutionary onsets. Classic researchers of revolutions, such as Jack Goldstone, have provided theoretical arguments for the importance of fiscal factors, but any substantial quantitative cross-national large-n research has not been conducted yet. Logistic regression analysis with an interaction term that we have performed confirms our main ...
Added: July 2, 2026
Chernomorchenko I., Ilya Medvedev, Korotayev A., Cross-Cultural Research 2026 Vol. 60 No. 4 P. 375–423
This study investigates which structural factors most strongly predict armed and unarmed revolutionary destabilization across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), as well as Asia using country–year data for 1950–2022 and a set of economic, demographic, political, and climatic indicators. It employs an interpretable machine learning framework (CatBoost with SHAP values ...
Added: June 1, 2026
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., Korotayev A., Conflict Management and Peace Science 2026 P. 1–23
In the field of civil war studies, there is a consensus that the risk of war decreases as income increases. Nevertheless, such consensus has not been reached in the field of civil resistance and unarmed revolutions. This paper proposes a curvilinear framework positing two opposite trends in economic development. On the one hand, it increases ...
Added: April 21, 2026
Вадим Устюжанин, Дмитрий Семичев, Леонид Гринин et al., Социологическое обозрение 2026 Т. 25 № 1 С. 9–61
The revolutionary process in the 21st century has undergone significant changes, and with the destabilization of democracy and the transformation of the world order, the number of revolutionary episodes has only increased, acquiring new goals and forms. In the countries of the Global South, as the population grew, millions of people began to come out ...
Added: March 25, 2026
Andrey Korotayev, Andrey Zhdanov, Julia Zinkina et al., Comparative Sociology 2025 Vol. 24 No. 6 P. 801–842
Revolutionary events are increasingly likely to take unarmed forms. This trend has been observed over the past 120 years as a result of the World System transformation, wherein most societies increased their GDP per capita, experienced the spread of modern formal education, and moved from predominantly rural and very young populations to mostly urban and older ...
Added: November 21, 2025
Ustyuzhanin V., Медведев И. А., Ufimtsev A. et al., Социологическое обозрение 2025 Т. 24 № 1 С. 71–105
One of the most important trends noted by researchers in the revolutionary events of recent decades is the rapid increase in the share of unarmed revolutionary uprisings and, accordingly, a decrease in the share of armed revolutionary insurgencies. The study of this trend is of great importance. This work continues previous research on unarmed revolutionary ...
Added: November 13, 2025
Л.Е. Гринин, А.В. Коротаев, Полис. Политические исследования 2025 № 6 С. 160–172
In 2001, after the publication of the article by J. According to Goldstone's “Towards the fourth generation of revolutionary theory”, a lot of new things have appeared in the approaches of researchers of revolutions in the 1990s, which means that we can talk about the formation of a new - fourth – generation of researchers, ...
Added: October 24, 2025
Korotayev A., Egor Fain, Ustyuzhanin V. et al., Critical Sociology 2025 Vol. 51 No. 4-5 P. 659–677
This article is the final part of our systematic review of the substantive findings of fifth-generation revolution studies, building on the examination of the emergence and characteristics of this generation contained in the first article in the series. Our systematic review is divided into two parts. In this second and final part, the following areas ...
Added: January 30, 2025
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., Korotayev A., Экономическая социология 2025 Т. 26 № 1 С. 52–89
The article tests several hypotheses about the impact of wealth and income inequality, as well as inequality in human capital, on the risks of armed and unarmed revolutions. Using the revolutionary destabilization database from the Center for Stability and Risk Analysis (CSRA) at HSE University, along with data collected by Mark Beissinger, the study analyzes ...
Added: January 29, 2025
Издательство "Учитель", 2021.
Revolutions have always played a significant role in the life of societies, but this role has become especially important since the XVI century. In other words, since the early Modern period, the role of revolutions as a driving force of progress has increased dramatically. However, in the following centuries, their role in the transformation of ...
Added: October 8, 2024
Korotayev A., Ustyuzhanin V., Grinin L. E. et al., / Series " ". 2024.
There are grounds for stating that in the 21st century a new ("fifth") generation of revolution studies has emerged. It can be noted that the characteristics of this generation are: a tendency towards a macro approach (both in the historical and geographical sense) together with a systemic approach; the research of separate important types of ...
Added: September 15, 2024
Ustyuzhanin V., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series PS "Political Science". 2024.
In the field of civil war studies, there is now a consensus that the risk of war decreases as average income increases. Nevertheless, such consensus has not been reached in the field of unarmed revolutions, which dominate the revolutionary process of our time. This can be explained by the fact that the researchers assumed a ...
Added: June 10, 2024
Leonid Grinin, Korotayev A., Critical Sociology 2024 Vol. 50 No. 6 P. 1109–1141
First of all, we would like to sincerely thank our critics for their work, for being able to find the opportunity to read our voluminous books, especially the Handbook of Revolutions (Goldstone et al., 2022b), which indeed came out much larger than we had planned, although unfortunately many topics and problems were left ‘off the ...
Added: May 20, 2024
Maksim Kostin, Korotayev A., Comparative Sociology 2024 Vol. 23 No. 2 P. 240–278
USAID democracy promotion programs might not only influence the democracy levels, but also increase the likelihood of revolutionary uprisings in the recipient states. Democracy promotion can strengthen political opponents of the incumbent regime via support for alternative media, civil society groups and political parties, on one hand, and, on the other, support democratic institutions that ...
Added: May 7, 2024
Leonid Grinin, Korotayev A., Critical Sociology 2024 Vol. 50 No. 6 P. 1039–1067
Recently, several significant studies have been published on revolutions, various aspects of the theory of revolution, and revolutions of recent times—the 21st century. Some of these studies will be discussed in this review essay. These studies deserve the most careful reading and analysis, consideration of their strengths and weaknesses in relation to the aspect of ...
Added: April 10, 2024
Korotayev A., Elena Voronina, , in: Terrorism and Political Contention. New Perspectives on North Africa and the Sahel Region.: Springer, 2024. P. 349–400.
Added: April 8, 2024
Korotayev A., Andrew Zhdanov, Gleb Krivenko, Comparative Sociology 2024 Vol. 23 No. 1 P. 98–126
This analysis finds that the impact of elections on risks of armed insurrections is not statistically significant, whereas unarmed uprisings/nonviolent revolutions are more likely to occur in the election year. It is also shown that the influence of elections on unarmed revolutionary destabilization had tended to grow with time. The election
year became a significant factor ...
Added: February 26, 2024