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Talking about the [same] revolution? A comparative analysis of main datasets of revolutionary events
Defence and peace economics. 2026. P. 1–31.
We conduct a comparative analysis of the main datasets on revolutionary events, including The Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes (NAVCO, versions 1.3 and 2.1), Cross-National Time-Series (CNTS), Revolutionary Episodes Dataset by Mark Beissinger, Revolutionary Database by HSE University (CSRA), and Historical Regime Data (HRD). To compare these sources systematically, we develop several complementary empirical instruments designed to identify and interpret differences across datasets. We show that these differences usually concern event boundaries and the inclusion of borderline cases rather than the substantive results of cross-national quantitative analyses, even though the datasets are not fully equivalent and rely on somewhat different operationalizations, definitions, and coding procedures. Across the major sources, we recover similar temporal and spatial distributions of events, as well as broadly similar structural predictors. We therefore argue that these datasets are empirically highly convergent for many comparative purposes, while not being conceptually identical.
Language:
English
Publication based on the results of:
Автухова Е. Э., Larionov A., Плачинда К. Д., М.: Экономический факультет МГУ имени М. В. Ломоносова, 2026.
Данное методическое пособие разработано в соответствии с рабочей программой курса «Банковское дело», реализуемого на Экономическом факультете МГУ имени М. В. Ломоносова по специальности «Экономика» (бакалавриат), и может быть рекомендовано для подготовки к семинарским занятиям и самостоятельной работе студентов. ...
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Kaspe S. I., Russia in Global Affairs 2026 Vol. 24 No. 4 P. 138–167
This article examines the stereotypes about China that prevail in the West and Russia and make them perceive it not only as a strategic challenge, but an existential threat. The article demonstrates that the most common fears are overstated and counterfactual, and that they are grounded in the West itself. Modern China cannot be identified ...
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Мусиева Д. М., Akaev A., Век глобализации 2025 Т. 56 № 4 С. 3–15
В работе дана кратчайшая история взаимоотношений Китая и США, которые за 40 лет прошли путь от экономического сотрудничества до глобального противостояния. Проведен анализ современного экономико-техно-логического и социально-политического состояния данных стран, показавший, что Китай как восходящая держава и США, находящиеся на нисходящей траектории, сегодня являются примерно равновеликими по совокупной мощи. Делается вывод о том, что нынешнее ...
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Yenikeyeff S., Russia in Global Affairs 2026 Vol. 24 No. 4 P. 10–41
This article maps the contours of the global energy order that may emerge by 2040. It argues that global energy flows are being transformed from a price-driven commodity trade into instruments of strategic power by four simultaneous processes: an uneven low-carbon transition, the securitization of energy flows, the fragmentation of the international monetary system, and ...
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Baklanov A., Международная жизнь 2026 № 9 С. 4–15
This article, using materials from the Russian Foreign Ministry archive, analyzes the origins, dynamics, and outcomes of the 1956 Suez Crisis. It emphasizes the crucial importance of the Soviet Union's harsh demarche against Great Britain and France, which forced London and Paris to cease their aggression against Egypt. It examines the approaches of various states ...
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Kazun A. D., Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз 2026 № 3 С. 80–98
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Balakina Y. V., Коммуникации. Медиа. Дизайн 2026 Т. 11 № 3 С. 24–44
This article explores the role of multimodal media texts (MMT) in political communication. MMT are seen as a blend of cultural and symbolic forms, manifested through various semiotic modes such as text, image, sound, and their combinations in the media space. The goal is to elucidate how these texts construct social reality and their functions ...
Added: October 1, 2026
Korotayev A., Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution UC Riverside 2026 Vol. 17 No. 2 P. 1–38
This paper examines the striking mathematical correspondence between two independently derived hyperbolic equations describing global evolutionary dynamics: Panov's time series of "biospheric revolutions" spanning 4 billion years of biological and cultural evolution, and von Foerster's famous "Doomsday" equation for world population growth (1960). Both phenomena are governed by equations of the form y = C/(2027 ...
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Shishkina A., Issaev L., Journal of Globalization Studies 2026 Vol. 17 No. 1 P. 145–156
This article is aimed at discussing the global and regional aspects of Islamic modernization. The study discusses the transformation of ideas about the role of women in the public space by the case study on the North Caucasus. The attitudes of traditional society, the influence of Soviet power, the role of Islamization, both early and ...
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Diskin E., Закон 2026 № 1 С. 92–123
In the January Legal Chronicle our authors comment on several significant legal events that happened at the end of 2025: decisions of the Constitutional Court No. 31-P on the payment of dividends on preferred shares, No. 41-P on VAT, No. 46-P on the fate of seized property in bankruptcy cases; discussion in the EU Council ...
Added: September 28, 2026
Gribkova D. E., Вопросы государственного и муниципального управления 2026 № 3 С. 151–176
Global challenges, economic security risks, sociodemographic and environmental processes, and accelerating technological development are creating a fundamentally new context for Public Administration that demands knowledge-based decision-making. The growing interest in proactive and predictive governance has led to the active use of science and technology foresight. However, the governance of scientific and technological development still faces ...
Added: September 28, 2026
Dubravskiy P., Электоральная политика 2024 № 2 С. 2
The paper explores the phenomenon of populism in Latin America as represented by two prominent political figures: Nayib Bukele, President of El Salvador, and Javier Milei, President of Argentina. Both leaders embody different approaches to populism, using charismatic leadership and radical rhetoric to mobilize the population and challenge political elites. The paper analyzes the methods ...
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Dubravskiy P., Электоральная политика 2025 № 1 С. 1
The paper examines the key factors behind Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Special attention is given to sociopolitical shifts in American society, the effectiveness of the Republican campaign, the use of digital political technologies, and strategic outreach to key voter groups in swing states. The research data for the study includes ...
Added: September 27, 2026
Soloshcheva M., Российское китаеведение 2026 Vol. 14 No. 1 P. 6–23
This article examines the conceptualization of Chinese soft power and the implementation
of the PRC’s soft power strategy in Africa. First introduced into academic
discourse by American political scientist Joseph Nye in 1990, the concept was subsequently
adopted and critically re-evaluated by Chinese political theorists, most notably
Wang Huning, Yan Xuetong, Yang Shengping and Zhang Guozuo. The term has ...
Added: September 27, 2026
Micah Y.B. Zing, Alisa R. Shishkina, Международная аналитика 2026 Vol. 2 No. 17 P. 126–138
The article focuses on the Western mainstream media (WMM) discourse on Russia-Africa relations and how Russo-Western information confrontation affects the diplomatic dialogue between Russia and African states. Historically, the Soviet Union fostered a friendly relationship with the continent, characterised by solidarity and mutual respect. The collapse of the Soviet Union, the WMM discourse on Russian-African ...
Added: September 25, 2026
Maksimenko A., Дейнека О. С., Загладина А. Р., Гуманитарные, социально-экономические и общественные науки 2026 № 9
The aim of the study was to develop and psychometrically validate the Amoral Creativity Questionnaire and to assess its relationships with dark personality traits and corrupt intentions. The sample comprised 722 respondents (mean age 38.5 years, 56.1% female) residing in Russia. To assess convergent validity, measures of machiavellianism, subclinical psychopathy, covert narcissism, psychological superiority, social ...
Added: September 25, 2026
Ustyuzhanin V., Zinkina J. V., Korotayev A., / Series "SocArXiv". 2026.
“Leaderlessness” is widely held to be a defining feature of contemporary mass mobilization, yet the claim rests on a handful of recent cases. We offer the first systematic cross-national analysis of this phenomenon from 1791 to 2019. We show that the absence of leadership is real but older and more modest than claimed: the share ...
Added: August 29, 2026
Korotayev A., Guseinov R., Ustyuzhanin V., Political Studies Review 2026 P. 1–22
In recent years, a kind of “Berlin Wall” has emerged between the study of “revolutions” and “maximalist campaigns.” Although scholars in these two traditions analyze closely related phenomena, they use different terminology, bodies of literature, and empirical conventions. We argue that this separation is analytically costly and prevents fruitful dialogue. On one hand, this leads ...
Added: August 8, 2026
Гусейнов Р. И., Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., Вестник Пермского университета. Серия: Политология 2026 Т. 20 № 2 С. 15–27
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Zhdanov A., Korotayev A., Социология власти 2026 Т. 38 № 2 С. 118–167
Imagining a cosmic future touches on many topics — but typically avoids the topic of death, burial, and attitudes toward deceased ancestors. Most of these developments concern life-support systems. This article analyzes the debate between American anthropologist Elizabeth Povinelli and Russian cosmists. The subject of this debate is immortality and attitudes toward ancestors in the ...
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Chernomorchenko I., Ilya Medvedev, Korotayev A., Cross-Cultural Research 2026 Vol. 60 No. 4 P. 375–423
This study investigates which structural factors most strongly predict armed and unarmed revolutionary destabilization across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), as well as Asia using country–year data for 1950–2022 and a set of economic, demographic, political, and climatic indicators. It employs an interpretable machine learning framework (CatBoost with SHAP values ...
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Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., Korotayev A., Conflict Management and Peace Science 2026 P. 1–23
In the field of civil war studies, there is a consensus that the risk of war decreases as income increases. Nevertheless, such consensus has not been reached in the field of civil resistance and unarmed revolutions. This paper proposes a curvilinear framework positing two opposite trends in economic development. On the one hand, it increases ...
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Вадим Устюжанин, Дмитрий Семичев, Леонид Гринин et al., Социологическое обозрение 2026 Т. 25 № 1 С. 9–61
The revolutionary process in the 21st century has undergone significant changes, and with the destabilization of democracy and the transformation of the world order, the number of revolutionary episodes has only increased, acquiring new goals and forms. In the countries of the Global South, as the population grew, millions of people began to come out ...
Added: March 25, 2026
Andrey Korotayev, Andrey Zhdanov, Julia Zinkina et al., Comparative Sociology 2025 Vol. 24 No. 6 P. 801–842
Revolutionary events are increasingly likely to take unarmed forms. This trend has been observed over the past 120 years as a result of the World System transformation, wherein most societies increased their GDP per capita, experienced the spread of modern formal education, and moved from predominantly rural and very young populations to mostly urban and older ...
Added: November 21, 2025