USAID Democracy Promotion as a Possible Predictor of Revolutionary Destabilization

Comparative Sociology. 2024. Vol. 23. No. 2. P. 240–278.

Maksim Kostin, Korotayev A.

USAID democracy promotion programs might not only influence the democracy levels, but also increase the likelihood of revolutionary uprisings in the recipient states. Democracy promotion can strengthen political opponents of the incumbent regime via support for alternative media, civil society groups and political parties, on one hand, and, on the other, support democratic institutions that in contrast to autocracies are more tolerable towards political opponents and thus allow more room for expressing political will on the streets. Since democracy aid targets “democrats” who are less prone to exert armed violence, the authors expect it to be associated with unarmed uprisings. Using logit regression models, they find that the volume of the USAID financial democracy assistance appears to be a significant predictor of unarmed revolutionary destabilization, but its effect is relatively weak. Some particular sub-sectors of democracy assistance have an impact on revolutionary destabilization, namely: civil society, elections, human rights and media assistance. These correlations might be partly explained by the fact that USAID assistance goes disproportionately to anocracies. This aid tends to increase the probability of revolutionary destabilization in two ways – directly (through strengthening political opponents of the regime) and indirectly (through increasing the number of anocracies in the world).

Keywords: democracy, revolutions, US democracy promotion, democracy assistance, USAID, revolutionary protests, nonviolent uprisings

Publication based on the results of: Global challenges to the development of the "Afrasian" macro-zone of instability in the context of Russia's national interests (2024)