Революционная активность в цифровую эпоху: особенности возникновения и развития в контексте политических режимов (часть 2)

Социологические исследования. 2026. № 9. С. 3–15.

А.И. Жданов, А.В. Коротаев

The study examines the impact of digital technologies – primarily the Internet and social media – on the likelihood of revolutionary processes emerging in the 21st century. Based on an analysis of panel data for countries around the world in the 21st century and the use of logistic regression for rare events, it is shown that the Internet is a significant factor in revolutionary destabilization, but its impact depends on the nature of the political regime. The growth in Internet penetration increases the likelihood of revolutionary uprisings, especially in democratic and transitional political systems, whereas in autocracies the effect is significantly weaker due to strict control and censorship. A negative correlation has been identified between the degree of freedom of the Internet and the likelihood of a revolution: restrictions on the digital environment increase social tension and can provoke protest activity. It is concluded that digitalization is not an independent cause of revolutions, but it exacerbates existing contradictions and affects political stability in different ways, depending on the institutional context.

Keywords: политические режимы, revolutions, political regimes, the Internet, революции, Интернет, факторы революций, революции зумеров, цифровые революции, the Z generation’s revolutions, digital revolutions, factors of revolutions

Publication based on the results of: State Resilience and National Security of Russia in the Context of the World Order Transformation (2025)