Анализ факторов выхода с рынка труда в возрасте 45 лет и старше в России: роль характеристик занятости, смены работы и получения образования

Социологический журнал. 2022. Т. 28. № 2. С. 50–72.

Sinyavskaya O., Cherviakova A. A., Lyubushina E.

This paper is devoted to the analysis of the impact of labor mobility and life-long learning on employment termination, as well as revealing the work characteristics that delay individuals in the labor market. It contributes to the discussion about exit from the labor market to economic inactivity factors in retirement. In foreign and domestic literature, most of the research is devoted to the study of the personal, family characteristics, and human capital influence on employment. The impact of employment characteristics, labor mobility and life-long learning on the chances to maintain a job has been insufficiently studied, and the available studies often lead to contradictory results.

The research is based on 10 annual waves of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS NPU HSE) conducted from 2010 to 2019. Using the Cox regression with time-varying covariates, we obtained the hazard ratios of leaving the labor market for people at the age 45 years and older, for men and women.

The results show that participation in life-long learning increases the chances of maintaining employment by 19.1%, and it is more important for women. Labor mobility increases the risk of unemployment by more than 3.5 times for the target group, especially for men. The most common characteristics of employment in Russia – formal employment, full-time work, working in medium or large enterprises – contribute to maintaining employment by 42%, 19%, 28-36%, respectively. Types of work outside the enterprises or organizations, as well as in private companies, accelerate the transition to unemployment.

Keywords: рынок труда, survival analysis, анализ выживаемости, labor market, middle-aged employment, employment of the elderly, factors of retirement, занятость в среднем и старшем возрасте, факторы выхода на пенсию