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Моделирование и прогнозирование мировой динамики
M. :
Институт социально-политических исследований РАН, 2012.
Research target:
Computer Science
Philosophy, Ethics, and Religious Studies
Sociology (including Demography and Anthropology
Political Science, International Relations, and Public Administration
Mathematics
History and Archeology
Language:
Russian
Keywords: математическое моделированиеРоссиякризисRussiacrisisdynamicsmathematical modelingglobalэкономические циклы и кризисыcyclesKondratieff wavesмировая динамикакондратьевские волны
Publication based on the results of:
Gusev I., Maksaev A., Promyslov V., Journal of Mathematical Sciences 2025 Vol. 299 No. 6
The regular graph of the space of n × m matrices over a field F is defined as the undirected graph whose vertices are matrices of rank min(n, m), and distinct matrices A and B are connected by an edge if and only if rk(A + B) < min(n, m). In this paper, for |F| ...
Added: May 25, 2026
Izotov V., Кардаш Н., Современная Европа 2026 № 2 С. 108–119
The article examines the issue of hybrid wars in the context of the confrontation between Turkey and the Republic of Cyprus within the geopolitical subsystem of the Eastern Mediterrane an. The authors, relying in part on sources little known outside the Greek-Cypriot research dis course, describe and classify the methods of Turkey’s hybrid warfare against ...
Added: May 25, 2026
Routledge, 2026.
This book is a comprehensive study on how the national security sectors of China, India, Japan, Russia, and the United States have engaged the idea of climate change as an existential threat. Climate Change, National Security and Geopolitics examines the respective ways in which the five states have framed the issue of climate change in ...
Added: May 25, 2026
Караваева Е. А., Кулигин Л. А., Rezunik L. et al., Труды Института системного программирования РАН 2026 Т. 38 № 3 С. 67–94
В статье представлен метод рефакторинга исходного кода на основе интеграции большой языковой модели (LLM) и расширенной UML-модели программного кода. Предложенный подход позволяет выявлять проблемные участки кода с использованием функций тревожности и структурных метрик классов, а затем выполнять автоматизированный рефакторинг. Ключевой особенностью метода является использование LLM для генерации формальных спецификаций на языке OCL (Object Constraint Language), ...
Added: May 24, 2026
Balaban M., Vasilizhenko A., Karachurina L. B. et al., Regional Research of Russia 2026 Vol. 16 No. 1 P. 151–169
The population dynamics of settlements are determined by many different factors, including, as
research shows, the availability of educational and healthcare facilities (i.e., basic social infrastructure) close
to home. One can assume a two-way relationship: a decrease in population entails a reduction in the number
of assigned students in schools and healthcare institutions and, as a result, the ...
Added: May 23, 2026
Nebolsin D., Логос 2026 Т. 36 № 1 С. 113–134
The article addresses the problem of theorizing the relationship between sound and visuality on the material of the more specific topics of recorded sound and visual image. The text is organized as a playlist: throughout the eight sound examples, it identifies the concepts of current image theory that are relevant for theoretical problems of sound ...
Added: May 23, 2026
Долгина О. Е., Вестник Пермского университета. Серия: Политология 2025 № 1 С. 44–55
The Izborsky Club positions itself as a "synthesis of Russian statists <...> from socialists and Soviet pa-triots to monarchists and Orthodox conservatives" and aims to unite representatives from diverse statist nationalist movements. The internal heterogeneity of Russian nationalism presents a challenge to the Izborsky Club's goal of developing a "new tradition", which involves constructing a ...
Added: May 23, 2026
Repina E., Соколова Е. Н., Рудаков А. Б., Вестник Томского государственного университета 2026 № 522 С. 119–129
На основе анализа более двух миллионов сообщений в социальных сетях, практики патриотического активизма в социальных сетях, а также данных интервью с представителями «служащих» профессий, выявлены факторы развития деятельностной компоненты патриотической идентичности. Сделаны выводы о ключевых мотивациях, роли личностных факторов и социализации в формировании социального капитала, а также о связи служения со значимыми ценностями – семьей, ...
Added: May 23, 2026
Tyukin I., Tyukina T., van Helden D. P. et al., Information Sciences 2024 Vol. 678 Article 120856
AI errors pose a significant challenge, hindering real-world applications. This work introduces a novel approach to cope with AI errors using weakly supervised error correctors that guarantee a specific level of error reduction. Our correctors have low computational cost and can be used to decide whether to abstain from making an unsafe classification. We provide ...
Added: May 23, 2026
Zaikin A., Sviridov I., Sosedka A. et al., Technologies 2026 Vol. 14 No. 2 Article 84
High-dimensional tabular data are common in biomedical and clinical research, yet conventional machine learning methods often struggle in such settings due to data scarcity, feature redundancy, and limited generalization. In this study, we systematically evaluate Synolitic Graph Neural Networks (SGNNs), a framework that transforms high-dimensional samples into sample-specific graphs by training ensembles of low-dimensional pairwise ...
Added: May 23, 2026
Kibkalo Vladislav, Chertopolokhov V., Mukhamedov A. et al., IEEE Access 2026 Vol. 14 P. 14369–14392
This study presents on-the-fly identification and multi-step prediction of nonlinear systems with delayed inputs using a dynamic neural network combined with a smooth projection onto ellipsoids. The projection enforces parameter constraints that guarantee stability, while a Lyapunov–Krasovskii analysis yields computable ultimate error bounds. Riccati-type matrix inequalities are derived, providing an efficient vectorization–projection–devectorization implementation suitable for ...
Added: May 22, 2026
Морозов С. В., Calcolo 2026 Vol. 63 No. 2 Article 23
The approximation of tensors in a low-para metric format is a crucial component in many mathematical modelling and data analysis tasks. Among the widely used low-parametric representations, the canonical polyadic (CP) decomposition is known to be very efficient. Nowadays, most algorithms for CP approximation aim to construct the approximation in the Frobenius norm; however, some ...
Added: May 22, 2026
Ignatyev G., Тетради по консерватизму 2025 № 4 С. 72–83
Political polarization is the phenomenon inseparably linked to Donald Trump's political activities since 2015. According to some researchers that polarization was the reason for Trump's victory in the elections. Others argue that polarization has grown because of Trump, and that the US population was much more united before his emergence on the political scene. In ...
Added: May 22, 2026
Loshkareva M. E., Matveeva N., Вестник Томского государственного университета. История 2026 № 100 С. 112–118
This research is an endeavor to apply social network analysis (SNA) to the study of a medieval narrative source. The authors suppose that the use of network analysis may offer new possibilities in the study of the history of regions characterized by some political fragmentation. Authors tried to construct networks of historical interactions from 1193 ...
Added: May 22, 2026
Будапешт всегда против: стратегия Венгрии в рамках китайского направления внешней политики Евросоюза
Shein S., Международная аналитика 2026 Т. 17 № 1 С. 161–174
Amidst the overarching imperative for a common foreign policy within the European Union, the long-term challenge to its implementation regarding the People’s Republic of China is the level of intra-Union unity. Special attention in this context is drawn to the case of Hungary, which not only contests the fundamental parameters of the EU foreign policy but also actively develops multifaceted relations with ...
Added: May 22, 2026
Novikova A., Бережная М. А., Кирия И. В., КноРус, 2026.
The aesthetics of journalism is substantiated as a necessary component in the professional training of specialists in audiovisual media. The factors and trends of historical and current changes in the aesthetics of journalism are presented, and the aesthetic practices of audiovisual journalism are characterized in terms of their social functioning. Criteria for aesthetic evaluation are ...
Added: May 22, 2026
Монгуш В. Р., Novikova A., Креативные индустрии 2026 Т. 2 № 1 С. 23–41
This article analyzes the historical and cultural background, as well as the current situation and development prospects of the creative industries ecosystem in the Republic of Tuva. A comparative analysis of this remote, subsidized region and its neighbors, the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) and Krasnoyarsk Krai, revealed its strengths, vulnerabilities, and strategies of young creative professionals ...
Added: May 21, 2026
Shipilov F., Barnyakov A., Ivanov A. et al., / Series Physics "arxiv.org". 2026.
A fast simulation of the detector response is a vital task in high-energy physics (HEP). Traditional Monte-Carlo methods form the backbone of modern particle physics simulation software but are computationally expensive. We present a machine-learning-based approach to fast simulation of the Focusing Aerogel Ring Imaging Cherenkov (FARICH) detector response. Given a particle track and momentum, ...
Added: May 19, 2026
Sizov A., Rodionova M., Sedashov E. et al., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series PS "Political Science". 2026. No. 1.
Rapid development of surveillance technologies is one of the most socially important consequences of the digital age. This paper investigates the factors determining consent to surveillance of various types of personal data and contributes to rapidly growing research on citizens perceptions of surveillance practices. Relying on a comprehensive survey experiment, we study the effects of ...
Added: May 15, 2026
Dorovskiy A., / Series arXiv "math". 2026.
In this paper the structural stability of generic families of vector fields of the PC-HC class on the two-dimensional sphere is proved. A classification of these families up to moderate equivalence in neighborhoods of their large bifurcation supports is presented, based on such invariants as the configuration and the characteristic set. The realization lemma is proved. ...
Added: May 14, 2026
Попов Д. И., Балтийский регион 2025 Т. 17 № 4 С. 68–83
The study examines the image of Russia in Finland’s historical policy in the context of the country’s accession to NATO. The aim is to identify shifts in the interpretation of Russia’s role in the Finnish political elite’s understanding of its own past, shared Russian–Finnish and global history. To this end, the analysis focuses on President ...
Added: May 13, 2026
Карцева М. А., Peresetsky A., / Высшая школа экономики. Серия WP2 "Количественный анализ в экономике". 2026. № WP2/2026/01.
This study examines the association between health status among elderly individuals living alone and pet ownership (cats, dogs). We employ data from the “Time Use Survey” conducted by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) in 2019, which contains information on more than 10,000 elderly individuals living alone aged 60 or older in Russia, including data ...
Added: May 8, 2026
Taletskii D., / Series arXiv "math". 2026.
A vertex subset of a graph is called a \textit{distance-$k$ independent set} if the distance between any two of its distinct vertices is at least $k + 1$. For all $n,k \geq 1$, we determine the minimum possible number of inclusion-wise maximal distance-$k$ independent sets among all $n$-vertex trees. It equals~$n$ if $n \leq k ...
Added: May 1, 2026
Vinokurov Y., Kofanov Y. N., Sotnikova S., В кн.: Инновационные, информационные и коммуникационные технологии: сборник трудов XXII Международной научно-практической конференции. Москва, 2025.: Ассоциация выпускников и сотрудников ВВИА им. проф. Жуковского, 2025. С. 129–134.
В статье представлены результаты разработки и валидации комплексной математической модели в виде ненаправленного графа для конкретного применения, а именно для проведения виртуальных тепловых испытаний электронной аппаратуры. Предложена структура модели, включающая четыре подмодели: тепловых процессов внутри аппаратуры, взаимодействия с испытательным оборудованием, внешнего температурного воздействия, взаимодействия с оснасткой и с измерительной системой. Описаны методы получения исходных данных ...
Added: May 1, 2026