The politics of polarisation in Venezuela: autocracy, populism and the collapse of the petrostate

Third World Quarterly. 2026. P. 1–20.

Pobedonostsev A.

Venezuela is widely regarded as one of the most politically divided nations in Latin America. However, the mechanisms through which political polarisation facilitated the emergence of authoritarian rule under Hugo Chávez and later Nicolás Maduro remain insufficiently specified. This article develops an account of polarisation-driven autocratisation in Venezuela and examines how elite and mass polarisation contributed to regime transformation. It argues that the erosion of state capacity was a pivotal mechanism through which elite polarisation empowered Chávez to seize power. Elite polarisation incentivised Chávez to weaken state institutions, thereby reducing the political influence of Venezuela’s old ruling elites. Rather than relying on formal state institutions, the Bolivarian regime depended on informal practices and an extensive ‘parallel state’, which allowed it to consolidate power. Furthermore, the regime employed mass polarisation, triggered by elite polarisation, as a deliberate strategy for political survival. This enabled Chávez to mobilise his core supporters and win elections. The paper focuses on how elite polarisation degraded Venezuelan state capacity and how mass polarisation strengthened support for the Chavistas. Together, these processes facilitated the consolidation of Chávez’s regime.

Keywords: state capacity, Venezuela, autocratization, democratic backsliding, political polarization