Младенческая смертность в регионах России в 1927-2022 гг.

Демографическое обозрение. 2026. Т. 13. № 2. С. 37–70.

Кузнецова П. О., Seredkina E.

This paper presents

an analysis of the dynamics and factors of infant mortality in Russian regions from

1927 to 2022, using data from Demoscope Weekly and the Russian Fertility and Mortality Database. Despite the

significance of regional factors in infant mortality, particul

arly in the early stages of the observed period, the period

effect was generally more important. Thus, nationwide processes can primarily explain the significant progress in

reducing infant mortality in the 1950s and 1960s, the slowdown in its decline in t

he late Soviet period, and the

subsequent recovery in the post

-

transformation period. Exceptions include events early in the observation period

and, to a lesser extent, the stagnation in infant mortality observed in the 1990s amid the economic transition.

For

example, the decline in overall Russian mortality rates during World War II was significantly influenced by positive

changes in the Ural and Volga regions, while the sharp increase in mortality during the 1947 famine was partly due

to the particularly

dire situation in the Urals and Siberia.

The analysis revealed the significance of gender and locality factors. Until the early 1950s, rural areas had an

advantage over urban areas in lower infant mortality rates. However, in subsequent years, urban areas

consolidated

their leading position, which remains the case today. The sex ratio in infant mortality during the observed period

followed an inverted U

-

shaped curve, with the peak excess mortality of boys under one year occurring in the

1970s and 1980s. Cu

rrently, there has been a decline in the ratio of male and female infant mortality rates, while a

significant male "penalty" remains at 20%.

 

Keywords: младенческая смертность, регионы России, декомпозиция Оаксаки-Блайндера, историческая демография, соотношение полов