Экономические драйверы потребления табака: анализ региональных данных

Вопросы статистики. 2026. Т. 33. № 2. С. 40–57.

Biryukova A., Zasimova L. S.

The paper examines changes in the economic affordability of cigarettes in Russian regions in 2011–2023. Using fixed-effects models, it estimates the impact of prices, incomes, and tobacco affordability (the ratio of per capita income to cigarette price), on three indicators: retail sales of cigarettes per capita, adult population spending on tobacco products, and the share of these expenditures in household consumer spending. The research identifies an increase in cigarette sales in 2022–2023 after a long-term decline in these consumption in 2011–2021, which coincides with improved affordability of cigarettes. A 1% decrease in cigarette affordability leads to a 0.28% increase in per capita
tobacco expenditures and a 0.57% rise in their share of household consumption spending. The low-price elasticity of cigarette sales with respect to affordability (0.36) suggests that the population's primary adjustment mechanism to decreased affordability is not a reduction in consumption, but rather a shift in purchasing behavior such as switching to cheaper brands, seeking out familiar products at retail outlets with lower prices. The results highlight the need for regular indexation of tobacco excise taxes and increase in the minimum cigarette price, ensuring they outpace growth in population income.

Keywords: курение, smoking, регионы России, эластичность спроса, Demand elasticity, Russian regions, Cigarette affordability, tobacco prices, доступность сигарет, cigarette sales, household expenditures on tobacco, цены на сигареты, продажи сигарет, потребительские расходы на табак