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Результативность пронаталистской политики в России, 2007-2023 гг.: причинно-следственный анализ рождаемости реальных поколений методами декомпозиции, регуляризации и байесовского моделирования
This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of key instruments of Russia’s pronatalist demographic policy—specifically, the federal maternity capital program and the RUB 450,000 subsidy for partial repayment of mortgage debt—over the period 2007–2023. The central research challenge is to disentangle short-term shifts in the timing of births from long-term structural changes in completed cohort fertility among women born in 1973–1995. The study’s methodological contribution lies in combining demographic decomposition with econometric methods of causal inference. To correctly link period-specific economic incentives and cohort reproductive trajectories, the study introduces, for the first time, a cumulative exogenous cohort exposure index.
To provide robust evidence, the study employs a triangulation strategy combining three complementary methods. First, the Ortega–Kohler decomposition of completed cohort fertility is used to estimate a hypothetical upper bound on the potential effect of the policies. Second, regularized regression analysis (Ridge, LASSO, Elastic net), combined with a double-selection procedure, made it possible to address the high dimensionality and multicollinearity among socioeconomic indicators, thereby isolating the net contribution of financial transfers to parity progression ratios (PPRs). Third, state-space models based on Bayesian structural time series were applied to construct dynamic counterfactual fertility scenarios in the absence of government interventions.
The empirical results of the decomposition show that, even under the assumption of the maximum possible upper bound, the maximum contribution attributable to the government support measures examined does not exceed 0.04–0.08 children per woman (2.4–4.8%), peaking among the 1980–1987 birth cohorts (+0.0848 or 4.87%). Estimates from regularized regressions indicate a total net contribution of +0.0288 children per woman from all the measures examined, with the second-child maternity capital program accounting for approximately 77% of this effect (+0.0222). The extension of payments to first births (+0.0029) and the mortgage subsidy for third births (+0.0037) yielded extremely limited returns. Causal inference using Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) confirms that the net fertility gain peaked at approximately +0.05 children per woman for the 1980–1986 birth cohorts, after which it dissipated to near-zero and slightly negative values among the 1994–1995 birth cohorts, averaging +1.57% across the 1973–1995 cohorts.
The study concludes that the pronatalist policy measures examined primarily induce shifts in the timing of births, without having a long-term effect on completed cohort fertility. More effective demographic policy requires a transition from lump-sum payments to the removal of institutional and social barriers to parenthood, although even such a policy is limited to an increase in completed cohort fertility of 0.1–0.2 children per woman.