Социально-экономическое развитие и прогноз структурно-демографических рисков стран Восточной Африки (Кения, Танзания, Уганда)
The risks of sociopolitical instability emergence are analyzed for three East African countries (Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda) which are currently trying to escape from the Malthusian trap. A cognitive model of the emergence of such risks is presented. Particular attention is given to demographic indicators and urbanization processes, especially to the "youth bulge" and rapid growth of urban population forecasted by the UN. Various development scanerios are viewed for these countires for the coming decades. Some policy advice is given in terms of avoiding or mitigating the risks f sociopolitical destabilization.