Репродуктивные намерения и динамика рождаемости населения разных стран в период пандемии COVID-19: аналитический обзор исследований

Демографическое обозрение. 2022. Т. 9. № 4. С. 138–159.

Vakulenko E., Макарова М. Р., Gorskiy D.

This paper is a review of the studies analysing changes in fertility levels and reproductive intentions of the population in Russia and other countries of the world during the COVID-19 pandemic. The reasons for the decline in fertility during this period are mainly stated as material difficulties, risks related to the health of the woman and her future child, worsening in the relations between partners, increasing number of divorces, and uncertainty. The paper proposes a classification of the sources collected: according to the method of data collection (surveys or aggregated data) as well as the reasons for postponing fertility. The reviewed papers do not cover all countries (Armenia, Australia, Austria, Belgium, China, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Russian Federation, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, England, USA are covered), and the research methodology used in the papers does not fully identify the COVID-19 pandemic effect. Model estimations have not been done in most of these papers. Most results and conclusions are drawn from an analysis of descriptive statistics and respondents' answers to specific questions about the impact of the pandemic on their reproductive intentions. Most articles reported a negative effect of the pandemic on fertility, and only some Nordic countries revealed a positive effect. Analysing the effects of COVID-19 on fertility may encourage governments to implement proactive pronatalyst policies.

Keywords: рождаемость, Россия, Russia, межстрановые сравнения, fertility, cross-country comparisons, total fertility rate, репродуктивные намерения, reproductive intentions, суммарный коэффициент рождаемости, пандемия, pandemic, COVID-19, COVID-19