Доля молодежи в общей численности взрослого населения как фактор интенсивности ненасильственных протестов: опыт количественного анализа
Studies in political demography suggest that there should be a positive correlation between the increased share of youth in the total population (‘youth bulges’) and the intensity of anti-government demonstrations. However, a correlation analysis (without adding any control variables) between the youth bulges and the intensity of non-violent protests demonstrates unexpected results, since in this case we find a statistically significant negativecorrelation. It is shown that this is due to the sociopolitical, sociocultural and economic modernization factors. In the long run, modernization, through a decrease in the birth rate and an increase in life expectancy, leads to the population ageing and reduction in the share of youth in the total adult population, which by itself acts as a factor reducing the intensity of anti-government demonstrations. But, on the other hand, modernization gives rise to other powerful factors, such as democratization, urbanization, and the expansion of formal education, which are more than able to compensate the ‘youth bulge’ decline These theoretical expectations have been confirmed by our tests. After the introduction of respective control variables, ‘youth bulges’ turn out to be a factor increasing the intensity of protests, while without these controls they become a predictor of the relatively low intensity of non-violent protests. Thus, our tests show that a high proportion of young people in the total population, all other things being equal, is nevertheless a factor of the increased intensity of anti-government demonstrations; thus, without a decrease in ‘youth bulges’, modernization would have led to a significantly more pronounced increase in the intensity of non-violent protests.
Diversionary war theory holds that insecure leaders are more likely to pursue aggressive foreign policies than their more secure counterparts. This hypothesis rests on the premise that interstate dispute involvement helps leaders deter potential challenges against their rule. We offer strong support for this premise by looking at coup attempts. Cross-national time-series evidence from interstate dispute participation over the period 1960–2000 indicates that a country in a militarized confrontation with another state is about 60% less likely to experience a coup attempt in the subsequent year. Consistent with our hypothesis, we establish that it is mainly militarized involvement in disputes, rather than non-militarized involvement, that is associated with lower coup likelihood. The results are robust to controlling for a wide set of potential correlates of coups and remain qualitatively intact when we focus entirely on within-country variations in coup attempts and interstate disputes.
This book is about the politics and public policies of population change across the globe. It is our attempt to make interdisciplinary progress at the intersection of demography and political science in order to fully understand the breadth and pace of demographic change worldwide. This book grew out of an idea that we tossed around at a workshop in Gothenburg in autumn 2015. In 2012, we had edited a volume on the comparative politics of population ageing in advanced industrial democracies in an attempt to make some advances in the fields of political sociology, comparative politics, comparative political economy and welfare state research (“Ageing Populations in Post-industrial Democracies: Comparative Studies of Policies and Politics, Routledge”, Routledge). In late summer 2016, we met in Odense to sketch out the first ideas for this book and identify suitable experts from across the globe. Since we had been working mostly on the OECD world ourselves, this was a steep learning experience. In 2017, we approached the Käte Hamburger Centre for Global Cooperation Research at the University of Duisburg-Essen with the question whether they could fund an international conference to bring together such a global group of experts. Luckily, they were able to do so, leading to a conference that took place on 23–24 November 2017 in Duisburg. For this volume, we wanted to adopt a wide scope across three dimensions. First, we wanted not only to include population ageing as the dominant driver of change in the age composition of modern societies, but to also add an in-depth analysis of migration as a fundamental factor of population change. Second, we wanted to expand the perspective beyond advanced industrial democracies to cover all major macro-regions of the world in order to develop a fuller picture of the dynamics of the politics of population change. Third, we wanted to broaden the time period under consideration, from 1990 to today and into the near future, up to 2040.
This ambitious open-access book draws the big picture of how population change interplays with politics across the world from 1990 to 2040. Leading social scientists from a wide range of disciplines discuss, for the first time, all major political and policy aspects of population change as they play out differently in each major world region: North and South America; sub-Saharan Africa and the MENA region; Western and East Central Europe; Russia, Belarus and Ukraine; East Asia; Southeast Asia; subcontinental India, Pakistan and Bangladesh; Australia and New Zealand. These macro-regional analyses are completed by cross-cutting global analyses of migration, religion and poverty, and age profiles and intra-state conflicts. From all angles, the book shows how strongly contextualized the political management and the political consequences of population change are. While long-term population ageing and short-term migration fluctuations present structural conditions, political actors play a key role in (mis-)managing, manipulating and (under-)planning population change, which in turn determines how citizens in different groups react.
In the 1960s Mancur Olson and Samuel Huntington suggested that the positive correlation between per capita income and the level of sociopolitical destabilization that they detected for low and middle income countries might be partly accounted for by the growth of the inequality associated with the economic and technological development in these countries. The empirical tests we perform generally support this hypothesis, but they also identify certain limits for such an explanation. Our tests reveal for low and middle income countries a statistically significant correlation between GDP per capita and the economic inequality levels, but this correlation is not particularly strong. Earlier we found for the same countries significantly stronger positive correlations between GDP per capita and some important components of sociopolitical destabilization, such as the intensity of political assassinations, general strikes and anti-government demonstrations. It is quite clear that the strong association between the increase in the intensity of these components of sociopolitical destabilization and GDP per capita growth, can be explained by a much weaker tendency toward the growth of economic inequality only partly. In addition, our empirical tests suggest the presence of a certain threshold level of about 40 points on the Gini scale, after crossing which one can expect a radical increase in levels of sociopolitical destabilization in general, and the intensity of terrorist acts / guerrilla warfare and anti-government demonstrations in particular. According to the World Bank, the value of the Gini coefficient for Russia is now just in this zone, which suggests that the further growth of inequality in Russia could lead to an abrupt increase in political destabilization.
Our review of some modern trends in the development of energy technologies suggests that the scenario of a significant reduction of the global oil demand can be regarded as quite probable. Such a scenario implies a rather significant decline of oil prices. The aim of this article is to estimate the sociopolitical destabilization risks that such a decline could produce with respect to oil exporting economies. Our analysis of the relationship between changes in oil prices and political crises in these economies shows a large destabilizing effect for price declines in the respective countries. The effect is highly non-linear, showing a power-law type relationship: oil price changes in the range higher than $60 per barrel only exert very slight influence on sociopolitical instability, but if prices fall below this level, each further decrease by $10 leads to a greater increase in the risks of crises. These risks grow particularly sharply at a prolonged oil price collapse below $40 per barrel, and become especially high at a prolonged oil price collapse below $35 per barrel. The analysis also reveals a fairly short-term lag structure: a strong steady drop in oil prices immediately leads to a marked increase in the risks of sociopolitical destabili- zation in oil-exporting countries, and this risk reaches critical highs within three years. Thus, the possible substantial decline of the global oil demand as a result of the development of the energy technologies reviewed in the first section of the present article could lead to a very substantial increase in the sociopolitical destabi- lization risks within the oil exporting economies. This suggests that the governments, civil societies, and business communities of the respective countries should amplify their effort aimed at the diversification of their economies and the reduction of their dependence on the oil exports.
Malthusian cycles are political-demographic cycles that were typical for complex pre-modern societies. Due to a number of mechanisms, within the pre-modern social systems (and some would argue even in the 21st century) population growth tended to produce a set of imbalances and strains, eventually resulting in political-demographic collapses and substantial population decline. After stabilization, the population growth usually re-started – marking the beginning of a new Malthusian political demographic cycle. This entry provides an overview of elements of the Malthusian cycle dynamics, a consideration of its political aspects, a summary of theories and mathematical models that have been advanced to explain the Malthusian cycles, and a discussion of the escape from the Malthusian trap and its political consequences.
The results of cross-cultural research of implicit theories of innovativeness among students and teachers, representatives of three ethnocultural groups: Russians, the people of the North Caucasus (Chechens and Ingushs) and Tuvinians (N=804) are presented. Intergroup differences in implicit theories of innovativeness are revealed: the ‘individual’ theories of innovativeness prevail among Russians and among the students, the ‘social’ theories of innovativeness are more expressed among respondents from the North Caucasus, Tuva and among the teachers. Using the structural equations modeling the universal model of values impact on implicit theories of innovativeness and attitudes towards innovations is constructed. Values of the Openness to changes and individual theories of innovativeness promote the positive relation to innovations. Results of research have shown that implicit theories of innovativeness differ in different cultures, and values make different impact on the attitudes towards innovations and innovative experience in different cultures.