Предпосылки мирового экономического кризиса и его начало весной 2020 г. в связи с пандемией COVID-19

Вестник международных организаций: образование, наука, новая экономика. 2020. Т. 15. № 2. С. 191–212.

Portanskiy A., Sudakova Y., Larionov A.

Analytical agencies, as well as international organizations, indicate significant risks in the development of the world economy, increasing the likelihood of a new global financial crisis in late 2020-early 2021. The main sources of risks are trade wars that lead to a crisis in the international system of trade regulation, a decrease in the effectiveness of public policy instruments, and a deterioration in the dynamics of global economic growth. An important factor leading to a slowdown in the global economy in 2020 will also be the coronavirus disease. However, it is difficult to assess the final losses from the coronavirus disease at the beginning of 2020. The combination of these negative factors, coupled with the unresolved problems of the global financial crisis of 2008, significantly increases the likelihood of a new global economic crisis that can surpass the Great Depression of the 1930s. The study systematizes the main forecasts of international organizations and analytical agencies for the growth of the world economy, as well as considers various theoretical concepts, the use of which allows you to identify the symptoms of the impending global financial crisis. Ultimately, the article offers options for reducing the negative impact of the crisis for Russia. In connection with the coronavirus pandemic that began in the spring of 2020, preliminary estimates have been made of the likely damage to the world economy and the prospects for its recovery.

Keywords: экономический рост, мировая экономика, economic growth, world economy, мировой финансовый кризис, мировая торговля, world financial crisis, World trade, торговые войны, trade wars