Сменяемость руководства и экономическое развитие: существует ли взаимная связь?

Журнал институциональных исследований. 2021. Т. 13. № 1. С. 60–75.

Ореховский П. А., Терещенко Д. С., Щербаков В. С.

The article is devoted to the analysis of interrelation between economic growth and change of government in the regions of Russia. The authors hypothesize that there is some correlation between them. In order to test the hypothesis, the quantitative analysis based on the data of 82 subjects of the Russian Federation was used. It was discovered that there is some interconnection between change of power and previous economic dynamics. This tendency has the higher significance during the period of indirect election of governance (2005-2012) At the same time, such economic indicator as GRP per capita is less interconnected with change of power. In other words, a regional recession or stagnation is much more likely to lead to a change in leadership than the low (compared to the national average) level of GRP itself. In addition, after the change of leadership in the short term, the dynamics of regional development is somewhat improving. In addition, after the change of leadership in the short term, the dynamics of regional development is somewhat improving. Apparently, these findings could be applied to the national level, but in this case, there should be additional discussions also about change of governance of executive power and legislative authority. It should also be borne in mind that effective regional leaders are often transferred to the federal level or to other, less successful regions within 2–3 electoral terms.

Keywords: регионы, экономический рост, economic growth, regions, economic strategy, экономическая стратегия, new political economy, change of government, сменяемость власти, новая политэкономия