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Территориальная неоднородность глобализации и порождаемые ею типы конфликтов

Сергеев В. М., Казанцев А. А., Медведева С. М.

The article aims to investigate the interrelations between current crisis of economic
globalization, on the one hand, and decay of USA hegemony and escalation of international conflicts,
on the other hand. For this purpose we provide synthesis of theories of hegemony within neoliberalism,
neorealism and world-system approach based on theory of transactional economy (D. North) and theory
of megalopolises-“global gaits” (D. Andersson), which provides the analysis of territorial distribution of
relationships in transactional economy. Thus, in this paper we disprove the widespread statement, that
globalization related with the process of uniform increase of connections between all parts of the world.
On the contrary, we conceive globalization as the territorial heterogeneity of relationships based on
social heterogeneity of resource allocation in the world. Maintenance of this heterogeneity requires the
hegemony in world politics. In the period of decrease of economic growth it provokes the escalation of
conflicts. If the period of economic decline coincides with the crisis of hegemony (current situation with
Tramp administration), it stimulates the crisis of economic globalization. The situation also provokes the
vast gap between the world economics’ demands in stability and inability of the system of world politics
to maintain it. On its turn, escalation of conflicts related to decrease of level of predictability, decrease
of mutual credibility, arms race etc., generates new secondary cycles of instability. Above mentioned
processes are the basis of expanding recently multi-level crisis of globalization. Our analysis allows
formulating three scenarios of development of this crisis (the transit to multipolar global management,
partial return to some period of USA hegemony and “hegemonic cold war” between the USA and
China). These scenarios are ranged in term of level of conflictness and level of negative impact on the
world economy. In the risk zone there are the semi-peripheral areas, where the most intensive clashes of key
world actors take place. The risk zone also encompasses Post-Soviet states.