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Article

Межпоколенческие счета и демографический дивиденд

Демографическое обозрение. 2018. Т. 5. № 4. С. 6-35.

The paper presents a modern methodology for estimating the impact of different age groups on the production and distribution of national income, called national transfer (generational) accounts. The human economic lifecycle is divided into stages defined by the ratio of labour income to consumption. In middle ages the gained income is higher than current consumption. The resulting surplus of resources is supposed to cover the income deficit in older and younger age groups. Estimates of the deficit or surplus at different ages are made for the Russian population for 2013 based on the results of age profiles taken from administrative sources and surveys. In the paper we also estimate the projected changes in the lifecycle deficit under different demographic development scenarios. Age profiles of labour income and consumption are used to calculate the effective economic support and the influence of demographic changes in Russia on economic growth rates in the near future.