Концептуализация второго демографического перехода: эвристический потенциал и ограничения теории
The concept of the “Second Demographic Transition” (SDT) plays an important role in the discussion about the demographic future of Europe and draws the attention of many researchers to this transition. The “Second Demographic Transition”-theory was formulated initially by Dirk van de Kaa and Ron Lesthaeghe in 1986. They found that, since the mid-1960s, in many countries of Europe there have been significant changes in fertility and family formation patterns. The emergence of this concept required an explanation of what should be understood as the First Demographic Transition (FDT) since until then such a concept did not exist. One of the topics of the article focuses on the comparison of SDT and FDT, in particular on the background and factors of these two transitions. The framework of the “SDT”-theory has evolved over time, but its main points have remained. It suggests a connection between changes in reproductive and matrimonial behavior, living arrangements and changes in values – “ideational shift”. The forms of marriage and family relations show a new dimension, which received in former times hardly attention: individual and independent choice of the partner, the equality of rights of partners, the importance of a lot of individual characteristics that match individual preferences etc. The article deals with the idea, the phenomenon, causes and the extent of the universality of the second demographic transition. Despite the fact that the concept of the “Second Demographic Transition” is the mainstream conceptual framework of sub-replacement fertility and family changes, there is no consensus on its universality and sufficiency. The “SDT”-theory suggests a hypothesis about the reduction of interethnic heterogeneity in European countries through the “standard” sequence of demographic events. Moreover, the supporters of the theory emphasize the similarity in family formation and partnership behavior in some industrialized countries of Asia, the Far East and Latin America and predict the similar individual choice of living arrangements patterns. Can we find a convergence of marriage and partnership behavior in different countries during the Second Demographic Transition? Will the SDT become a worldwide phenomenon (as the First “classical” Demographic Transition) or will it remain “regionally diversified”? The article attempts to get closer to the answer to these main questions. The “SDT”-theory has not only supporters but also opponents. In this regard, the article presents a critical review of the theory of the Second Demographic Transition.