The epistemological relevance of the arts in foresight and futures studies
In this paper, we argue that the arts in its various forms have a genuine epistemological relevance to the theory and practice of foresight. To this end, we draw on the work of Ernst Bloch to advance the ‘disclosive’ role of graffiti art in contributing to futures becoming and the understanding of peoples’ subjective experiences and shared social theories about inarticulate social currents that may bring to life possibilities and potentialities in the realisation of some modest utopian visions.
One of the most important issues for the world society in the XXI century is a task to provide pure water for citizens. As evidenced results of expert survey, made by the Higher School of Economics
significant part of water sources for drinking water in Russia doesn’t meet necessary requirements. And one of the most adequate solutions to meet this challenge is using the nanotechnologies in processes of water purification that can solve the set of problems such as polluted sources, obsolete equipment, increased risk of diseases etc. Roadmap “Applying Nanotechnology to Water Treatment” was launched by summarizing opinions of expert community participants both national and foreign regarding the most significant nanotechnologies and products made with their help which are used or can be used for water treatment and purification purposes. The aim of the research is to make special innovation routes R&D-technologies-products-markets that could be used by federal and regional authorities and Russian companies working in the field of water purification. The roadmap becomes the first largescale national foresight exercise in the area of nanotechnologies for water purification.
This paper reports a Foresight exercise, which was carried out to develop a research strategy and a business model for the science park of Ankara University (AU). Science parks have been crucial elements of innovation systems both in developed and developing countries due to their role in bridging the gap between academia and business through knowledge spill-overs and spin-offs. Although there is a widespread consensus about the usefulness of the science park concept, the actual performance of science parks and how well they meet expectations have been controversial. This paper discusses the success factors for science parks. A three dimensional policy framework, which includes ‘complementarity’, ‘networking’ and ‘strategic scalar positioning’ is suggested to be taken into account during the design and operation of science parks. The paper describes the Foresight process and the policies and strategies developed by using the three dimensional policy framework proposed for the newly established science park at Ankara University.
Some texts written by me together with corresponding member of the Russian Academy of science Sergei P. Kurdyumov (1928-2004) and under his direct ideological influence are collected in the book. These texts are elaborated, systematized, brought together in the book and supplemented with new materials. Sergei P. Kurdyumov were possessed of a deep metaphysical flair and put forward ideas, the matter of which are not fully clear up to now. These are, first of all, the idea of co-evolution and the notion of complex structures developing at different tempos as co-existing tempo-worlds. Owing to developments in the field of nonlinear dynamics and of synergetics, the classical problem of time and the problems of evolutionary holism disclose some new and non-traditional aspects. The matter of new notions of nonlinearity of the course of time in the processes of evolution and coevolution and of nonlinear links between different modi of time – between the past, the present and the future - come to the light in the book. Analyses of four interconnected aspects of the course of processes in open and nonlinear dissipative systems – of evolutionarity, temporality, emergent nature and holism – are carried out. A whole series of paradoxical notions, such as “the influence of the future upon the present”, “the possibility of touch of a remote future in praesenti”, irreversibility and elements of reversibility of the course of time appear in synergetics, non-traditional and nonlinear notion of time being at the heart of all of them. It is shown that the best pictorial view of the nonlinear time is apparently the tree of evolution or the tree of time that represent one of archetypes in the human psyche. This image is widely used in myths and religious doctrines of the world nations (the tree of evolution of languages from some united parent language or the tree of evolution of biological species), the image is often drawn by children, appears in consciousness of a man in his sleep, etc. The synergetics methodology under development is applied to study of cognitive systems. The emergent structures of evolution and of self-organization of the individual consciousness, their spatiotemporal peculiarities, and the complexity of the human Self are considered in detail. The radical changes in the understanding of the problems of time that occur due to synergetics are compared with images of time and with the notions of connection between the past, the present and the future in the history of philosophy and of culture. The obtained methodological inferences are of great importance for a reform of systems of education, for forecasting (for building of scenarios of future development), for effective management activity in the modern globalizing world, for elaboration of methods of stimulation of the creative thinking, for the growth of personality and its adequate building into the social media.
Purpose – This paper aims to depict foresight programmes as extended service encounters between foresight practitioners, sponsors, and other stakeholders. The implications of this perspective for evaluating the outcomes of such programmes are to be explored.
Design/methodology/approach – The range of activities comprising foresight is reviewed, along with the various objectives that may underpin these activities. The more substantial foresight programmes are seen in terms of a series of steps, in each of which various partners can be involved in generating service outcomes and later steps of the process. The arguments are illustrated with insights drawn from various cases.
Findings – A foresight programme is likely to feed into more than one policy process, so that the foresight activities can be linked to various stages of the policy cycles, as well as engaging participants with different degrees of inﬂuence on the policies in question. The outcomes of the foresight activity are also heavily shaped by the degree of involvement of various stakeholders, not least the sponsoring agency and any other groups it seeks to mobilise. Seeing foresight as a service activity brings to the fore the notion of co-production, and the importance of the design of the service encounters involved.
Research limitations/implications – The task of evaluating foresight is a challenging one, and comparison of foresight activities needs to bear in mind the different scale, scope, and ambitions of different programmes. Simple static comparison of formal inputs and outputs will miss much of the value and value-added of the activity.Practical implications – A dynamic approach to evaluation stresses the learning of lessons about the roles of multiple stakeholders – and the responsibilities of sponsors as well as practitioners. Originality/value – Foresight programmes are frequently commissioned, and often have signiﬁcant inﬂuence on decision-making. Attempts to systematically evaluate these efforts have begun, and this essay stresses the need to be aware of the complex interactive nature of foresight, highlighted by viewing it in service terms.
In the past decades Foresight has been significantly developed as a tool for long-term forecasting in the field of power generation and energy efficiency. Such research aims at investigation of the most promising innovation strategies in this area, identifying various (including alternative) ways to achieve technological and market goals with the participation of best qualified experts. Such Foresight method as Roadmapping is widespread in the world practice. It helps to shape complex and interrelated views on prospects of innovation development in specific areas of energy efficiency, it links R&D programmes with creation of technologies and products, as well as their subsequent commercialization. The paper provides an overview of the world Foresight experience aimed at creating vision of the future and building innovation strategies related to energy efficiency. Special attention is paid to the Russian research practice, in particular to different types of Foresight projects implemented by the specialists of State University - Higher School of Economics. The authors describe the results of main projects dedicated to shape the future of energy-efficient technologies and to develop of innovation strategies on their application.
The paper presents methods and algorithms for identifying complex concepts relevant for the domain of technological foresight within text collections. An approach based on the so called “black box” principle and combination of statistical and linguistic methods is proposed.
Main concepts and models of the modern theory of self-organization of complex systems, called also synergetics, are generalized and formulated in the book as principles of a synergetic world view. They are under discussion in the context of philosophical studies of holism, teleology, evolutionism as well as of gestalt-psychology; they are compared with some images from the history of human culture. The original and unfamiliar (to the Western readers) research results of the Moscow synergetic school which has its center at the Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences are expounded in the book. The heuristic value of the synergetic models of evolution and self-organization of complex systems in epistemology and cognitive psychology, education and teaching, futures studies, social management activities and systems of global security is shown in the book. The book is addressed to a wide circle of readers: students, teachers, scientists who are specialized in different fields of natural sciences and the humanities as well as to all readers who strive for using recent results of science for reflections and achieving success in their own life.
This illuminating book combines theory and practice to analyze the experiences and impacts of foresight activities in various European countries. It includes case studies with a focus on different societal issues including national development, science and technology, and sustainable development.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.
портовый менеджмент, показатели деятельности, анализ эффективности, система учета, распределение издержек, методы анализа деятельности портовой системы
At present many industries reveal tendency for setting up of vertically integrated companies (VIC) the structure of which unites all technological processes. This tendency proved its efficiency in oil industry where coordination of all successive stages of technological process, namely, oil prospecting and production -oil transportation - oil processing - oil chemistry - oil products and oil chemicals marketing, is necessary. The article considers specific features of introduction of "personnel management" module at enterprises of oil and gas industry.
vertically integrated companies; personnel management