Forthcoming youth bulge in Egypt: possible sociopolitical implications

Journal of North African Studies. 2024. Vol. 29. No. 5. P. 841–860.

Korotayev A., Julia Zinkina

The increased proportion of youth aged 15–24 or 15–29 in total or adult population has long been shown to influence the intensity of sociopolitical destabilisation in general and political violence in particular. Youth bulges played an important role in the destabilising processes of the Arab Spring. We show that the influence of youth bulges in Egypt (and North Africa in general) is far from being limited to historical events. The demographic dynamics of Egypt (and a number of other North African countries) implies the emergence of new youth bulges in the future. We proceed to discuss this phenomenon and its sociopolitical implications. The period of the eve of the Arab Spring and the beginning of the 2010s was accompanied by the strengthening of the influence of Islamists in all countries of North Africa and in many Arab countries of Asia, which was likely associated with a period of significant growth of fertility rates in these countries. This surge in fertility rates generated those youth bulges that are confidently forecasted in these countries for the 2030s. It cannot be ruled out that in the 2030s Egypt (and North Africa in general) will experience a new destabilisation wave, which will be a kind of echo of the wave of the late 2000s – early 2010s.

Keywords: Egypt, Islamism, youth bulge, North Africa, Sociopolitical destabilisation, Fertility dynamics

Publication based on the results of: Mechanisms and factors of stability of socio-political systems of the "Afrasian" macro zone of instability (2023)