К исследованию динамики государственной состоятельности и государственной устойчивости стран "афразийской" макрозоны нестабильности в условиях трансформации мирового порядка

История и современность. 2025. № 3 (57). С. 21–68.

А.В. Коротаев, В.В. Устюжанин, Ю.В. Зинькина, Л.М. Исаев, М.Г. Миронюк, И.Ю. Черноморченко, Л.Е. Гринин

The article examines the trends affecting state activity and sustainability in the countries of the Afro-Asian macro-stability zone, which are considered in the context of the transformation of the world order and the associated process of reconfiguration of the World System. An attempt has been made to use the concept of state solvency to build an appropriate index in relation to the countries of the Afro-Asian macro zone of instability. Based on the methodology of J. Hansen and R. Sigman, the authors of the article clarified and expanded the set of indicators that allowed us to obtain estimates of the level of state solvency. In addition, the time range of the analyzed observations was significantly expanded up to 2024. Conceptually, state viability has three dimensions in the form of coercive, administrative-bureaucratic and extractive abilities. This conceptualization generally reflects modern ideas about the state and its prerogatives. Despite all the limitations, both the concept and the proposed measurement approaches provide useful results. As evidenced by the data provided on the dynamics of state solvency in the countries of the Afroasiatic macro zone of instability, the estimates obtained are sufficiently accurate (when compared with country and regional expertise) and can be used in the future to predict changes in the index. In general, the use of the index under consideration made it possible to identify the main trends in changes in state stability and state viability of key countries of the Afro-Asian macro-zone of instability (including sub-Saharan Africa). The index indicators can also be used to clarify the policy of Russia (and associations/organizations with its participation) when building relations with the countries of the Afro-Asian macro-zone in terms of assessing possible risks.

Keywords: Центральная Азия, государственная состоятельность, Central Asia, Северная Африка, trends, тренды, North Africa, Африка южнее Сахары, Афразийская макрозона нестабильности, Sub-Saharan Africa, West Asia, государственная устойчивость, government solvency, government sustainability, Afro-Asian macro zone of instability, Западная Азия

Publication based on the results of: State Resilience and National Security of Russia in the Context of the World Order Transformation (2025)