The Global Energy Order – 2040: Contours of an Emerging System

Russia in Global Affairs. 2026. Vol. 24. No. 4. P. 10–41.

Yenikeyeff S.

This article maps the contours of the global energy order that may emerge by 2040. It argues that global energy flows are being transformed from a price-driven commodity trade into instruments of strategic power by four simultaneous processes: an uneven low-carbon transition, the securitization of energy flows, the fragmentation of the international monetary system, and the “last wave of decolonization.” By examining logistical chokepoints, the AI-driven surge in electricity demand, the nuclear renaissance, the constraints facing renewables, and contests over critical minerals and Arctic gas, the author identifies a paradigm shift. Specifically, the petrodollar system may be yielding to an electrodollar model, in which access to reliable low-carbon electricity near data centers is becoming a critical determinant of technological power. Finally, the author assesses four scenarios for 2040—managed renewal, a Chinese-led order, fragmentation into regional blocs, and systemic rupture—ultimately concluding that regional fragmentation is the most probable outcome.

Keywords: geoeconomics, energy transition, Global South, Energy transition geopolitics, Governance of the global energy order, critical minerals, chokepoints, electrodollar, 2040 scenarios