Опасность фрагментации глобальной экономики нарастает

Вестник международных организаций: образование, наука, новая экономика. 2024. Т. 19. № 2.

Portanskiy A.

The article examines the reasons for the fragmentation of the world economy and trade at the beginning of the 21st century. The author explores two aspects of fragmentation that are associated. The first aspect relates to the weakening of the WTO and its rule-making function, which has intensified regionalization, manifested in the emergence of trade mega-agreements. Further progress of the latter, while the WTO remains relatively weak, may contribute to the future fragmentation of world trade, from which small developing countries will primarily lose. The second aspect is largely due to the consequences of the financial crisis of 2008-2009, which resulted in the desire of key players to create more autonomous national economies and ensure economic security in order to avoid excessive costs in the event of a recurrence of such crises. This gave rise to talk about strengthening deglobalization trends. The second aspect also includes the US-China trade war with technological decoupling between them; influence of geopolitical factors on trade; the impact of industrial policies of large states on trade. The final third part of the article provides a brief analysis of the negative impact of fragmentation on the global economy and trade. The author comes to the conclusion that geo-economic fragmentation poses a real threat to the global economy.

Keywords: Китай, протекционизм, China, торговля, protectionism, global economy, глобальная экономика, деглобализация, фрагментация, US, deglobalization, fragmentation, Trade, США