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Математическое моделирование демографического будущего стран БРИК
С. 180–231.
Language:
Russian
Keywords: рождаемостьсмертностьматематическое моделированиеБРИКдемографическое развитиериски социально-политической дестабилизации
Publication based on the results of:
Isaev T. F., Шаров А. Н., Журнал вычислительной математики и математической физики 2026 Т. 66 № 1 С. 83–93
Исследуются свойства оптических покрытий на основе использования упрощенного симулятора ошибок в толщинах слоев покрытий при их напылении. Обосновывается возможность такого подхода. Выводятся аналитические оценки среднеквадратичного значения нормы вектора ошибок и степени коррелированности ошибок в толщинах слоев покрытия. Изучается зависимость среднеквадратичного значения нормы вектора ошибок и свойств покрытия от уровня случайных ошибок в слоях. ...
Added: October 5, 2026
Zakharova S., Мониторинг общественного мнения: Экономические и социальные перемены 2026 № 4 С. 207–230
This article presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between Russians' reproductive intentions and the division of household chores, along with their satisfaction with it. The study draws on theoretical approaches linking fertility to the participation of men and women in domestic labor, and builds upon the methodology proposed in a study by Riederer and ...
Added: September 14, 2026
Chertenkov K., Вопросы статистики 2026 Т. 33 № 4 С. 80–89
В статье рассматривается дифференциация итоговой рождаемости в зависимости от уровня образования женщин. Используются данные Всероссийских переписей населения 2010 и 2020 гг., а также Всесоюзной переписи населения 1989 г. Применяются методы когортного анализа, включающие расчет среднего числа рожденных детей, доли бездетных и доли матерей, родивших трех и более детей, для реальных женских поколений 1930–1981 годов рождения. ...
Added: September 12, 2026
Zakharov S. V., AlterEconomics (ранее - Журнал экономической теории) 2026 Т. 23 № 2 С. 429–447
This article examines changes in the quantum and structural characteristics of period and cohort fertility in Russia in the context of pro-natalist demographic policy pursued since 2006. The study assesses the significance of recent decades’ shifts for total fertility, the age profile of mothers, and their distribution by number of children born. The analysis draws ...
Added: July 7, 2026
Vinokurov Y., Kofanov Y. N., Sotnikova S., В кн.: Инновационные, информационные и коммуникационные технологии: сборник трудов XXII Международной научно-практической конференции. Москва, 2025.: Ассоциация выпускников и сотрудников ВВИА им. проф. Жуковского, 2025. С. 129–134.
В статье представлены результаты разработки и валидации комплексной математической модели в виде ненаправленного графа для конкретного применения, а именно для проведения виртуальных тепловых испытаний электронной аппаратуры. Предложена структура модели, включающая четыре подмодели: тепловых процессов внутри аппаратуры, взаимодействия с испытательным оборудованием, внешнего температурного воздействия, взаимодействия с оснасткой и с измерительной системой. Описаны методы получения исходных данных ...
Added: May 1, 2026
Ustyuzhanin V., Zinkina J. V., Korotayev A., Журнал социологии и социальной антропологии 2026 Т. 29 № 1 С. 228–258
The high fertility rates that persist in Tropical African countries are a kind of anomaly, since other developing countries had lower fertility rates when having similar socio-economic development indicators — phenomenon dubbed “African pronatalism” in Western demography. Meanwhile, the lag in fertility transition contributed greatly to Africa's economic backwardness since independence, which is why the ...
Added: April 11, 2026
Stadnik N., Демографическое обозрение 2023 Т. 10 № 2 С. 18–40
Regional fertility differentiation is a significant factor of regional inequality in the long term. As previous studies show, the first demographic transition in developed countries, which was accompanied by the development of public institutions and means of communication, resulted in a surge in regional fertility differentiation followed by an unprecedented decrease.
In this study, an attempt ...
Added: April 9, 2026
Cherviakova A. A., Makarentseva A. O., Biryukova S., Социологический журнал 2026 Т. 32 № 1 С. 123–141
Novel measures in Russian family and demographic policy include support for women who have given birth while pursuing vocational education. This is driven by the government’s concerns about the postponement of motherhood, and by a desire to reduce the risks of economic vulnerability for this group of women with children. In this paper we examine ...
Added: March 30, 2026
Smirnov A., Лыткина У. В., Population and Economics 2022 Vol. 6 No. 2 P. 14–34
The article is devoted to the analysis of impact of economic specialization of settlements in the northern mining region on their demographic dynamics. The object of the study is 58 urban and 725 rural settlements of the Komi Republic in 1897-2020. Use of highly detailed data made it possible to identify spatial and sectoral patterns ...
Added: March 18, 2026
Smirnov A., Панарина И. А., Народонаселение 2025 Т. 28 № 4 С. 54–67
The article considers life expectancy of the population of the regions of Russian North in 1993–2023. Despite the large contribution of the northern territories to the economy, some of them remain among the most lagging in mortality rates. Using the Russian Fertility and Mortality database, the authors calculated the losses in life expectancy in the ...
Added: March 18, 2026
Smirnov A., Лыткина У. В., Чупрова Е. А., Экономические и социальные перемены: факты, тенденции, прогноз 2025 Т. 18 № 2 С. 194–211
The North of Russia comprises cities and districts that differ in fertility and reproductive behavior; this fact makes the territory an interesting object for demographic research. The paper considers fertility in the North of Russia at the regional and municipal levels, both in conditional and in real generations. Such an approach helps to identify spatial ...
Added: March 18, 2026
Smirnov A., Арктика: экология и экономика 2025 Т. 15 № 1 С. 131–142
The article examines the duration of residence in municipalities of the Russian Arctic. This is an adaptation of the life expectancy indicator, which takes into account the migration outflow in addition to mortality. The indicator helps to assess the contribution of migration and mortality to the reduction of the demographic potential of the Arctic territories. ...
Added: March 18, 2026
Vakulenko E., Evgrafova R., I. A. Trofimenko, Population Research and Policy Review 2026 Vol. 45 Article 19
This research focuses on analyzing the relationship between credit obligations, including mortgages, housing conditions, and the probability of having a child in the family in Russia. The research novelty lies in a complex approach towards analyzing the association between mortgages and reproductive behavior. A longitudinal household survey covering the period 2007–2022 was used. We estimated ...
Added: March 18, 2026
Урюпин И. В., Vlasenko A., Мир транспорта 2024 Т. 22 № 4 (113) С. 94–103
The price of transportation (rate) is one of the key factors in the development of the air transportation system (ATS) of any country, in particular of the Russian Federation. In turn, the formation of the rate directly depends on the cost price of transportation and its components. Forecasting and modelling the cost prices considering the ...
Added: February 24, 2026
Урюпин И. В., Vlasenko A., Экономика и математические методы 2024 Т. 60 № 2 С. 92–104
At present, in an unstable geopolitical situation, one of the most important tasks for the Russian Federation is the creation of advanced domestic aircraft that will not be inferior to its foreign counterparts. The cost of operating is the main criterion in the design of a new aircraft to ensure competitiveness in air transport systems. ...
Added: February 24, 2026
Урюпин И. В., Vlasenko A., Sukharev A., Экономика и математические методы 2025 Т. 61 № 4 С. 73–85
At present development of advanced civil aircraft is one of the key priorities in Russia. To become commercially successful advanced civil aircraft should provide competitive lifecycle costs. Accordingly, it requires balancing operational expenses and consumer-acceptable pricing during an aircraft design phase. However, price evaluation of a prospective aircraft with the analog method or the income ...
Added: February 24, 2026
Akaev A., Давыдова О. И., Korotayev A., Философия и общество 2025 № 4(117) С. 5–46
This article presents a comprehensive macroeconomic analysis of countries grouped into civilizational clusters based on a cultural-historical approach. The object of the study is the macroeconomic dynamics of states in the context of civilizational differences, and the subject is the model-based assessment and forecast of GDP growth rates for the period up to 2050. The ...
Added: February 24, 2026
Larionov A., Вестник Московского университета. Серия 26: Государственный аудит 2025 № 4 С. 52–65
Представленное исследование раскрывает концептуальный подход к проведению государственного аудита мер демографической политики в России. Стратегический ориентир на сохранение населения России определяет необходимость совершенствования мер государственного управления, направленных на повышение рождаемости населения, снижение смертности, а также улучшение общественного здоровья в России. Вместе с тем меры управления оказывают комплексное воздействие на данные социальные процессы с различным уровнем ...
Added: February 10, 2026
Ustyuzhanin V., Демографическое обозрение 2025 Т. 12 № 4 С. 100–122
Formal demographic analysis, including the construction of life tables, standardization of indicators, decomposition of changes, and modeling of demographic processes, requires complex calculations and data manipulation. Despite the advances in methods, many of them have not yet been implemented as ready-to-use, convenient tools in modern statistical environments. To address this issue, we present the demor ...
Added: December 30, 2025
Ustyuzhanin V., Халтурина Д. А., Рыбальченко С. И. et al., Общественное здоровье 2025 Т. 5 № 4 С. 7–26
Introduction. A key factor that substantially reduces life expectancy in Russia is high mortality at working ages. The main risk factors are behavioral: tobacco and alcohol consumption, low levels of physical activity and unhealthy diet. All these factors are amenable to modification. The purpose of the study: to conduct a comprehensive analysis of mortality trends ...
Added: December 16, 2025
Yumaguzin V., Vinnik M. V., Здравоохранение Российской Федерации 2025 Т. 69 № 6 С. 530–537
Introduction. High mortality from certain unspecified causes of death leads to a degradation of mortality statistics for causes, which is especially noticeable in a number of Russian regions.
Purpose. To assess the quality of mortality statistics in the regions of Russia through the prism of the frequency usage of codes from unspecified causes of death.
Materials and methods. Standardized mortality ...
Added: December 16, 2025
Урюпин И. В., Власенко А. О., Sukharev A., Экономика и математические методы 2025 Т. 61 № 4 С. 73–85
At present development of advanced civil aircraft is one of the key priorities in Russia. To become commercially successful advanced civil aircraft should provide competitive lifecycle costs. Accordingly, it requires balancing operational expenses and consumer-acceptable pricing during an aircraft design phase. However, price evaluation of a prospective aircraft with the analog method or the income ...
Added: December 12, 2025
Larionov A., Вестник Российского экономического университета им. Г.В. Плеханова 2025 № 6 С. 15–34
Представленное исследование раскрывает меры государственного управления по повышению рождаемости населения в России, что является стратегическим ориентиром для обеспечения национальной безопасности России. На основе данных выборочного наблюдения репродуктивных планов населения в 2022 году построены эконометрические модели, определяющие значимые факторы, влияющие на рождение трех и более детей. По результатам проведенного исследования раскрывается методический подход «Куб управления народонаселением», ...
Added: December 4, 2025