?
Цивилизационные коды экономического роста: сравнительная модель и прогноз ВВП
This article presents a comprehensive macroeconomic analysis of countries grouped into civilizational clusters based on a cultural-historical approach. The object of the study is the macroeconomic dynamics of states in the context of civilizational differences, and the subject is the model-based assessment and forecast of GDP growth rates for the period up to 2050. The relevance of the work is determined by the need to rethink global economic development considering stable socio-cultural and institutional factors that define long-term growth trajectories. The methodological basis is an original mathematical model developed by the authors, based on a logistic function of limited growth with two nested cyclical components reflecting medium- and long-term development waves. Model parameters were determined by the least squares method using historical GDP data from 1970 to 2023. Modeling was carried out both at the level of individual countries and civilizational clusters. According to the authors’ calculations, the highest average annual GDP growth rates in the period 2025–2050 are likely to be characteristic of India (4.4 %), Indonesia (3.36 %), and China (2.3 %). China, despite a slowdown in growth rates, will maintain the largest absolute increase in GDP in the world economy. Russia, within the Eurasian civilizational cluster, according to an inertial scenario, may demonstrate steady growth at around 1.36 % per year; however, the authors believe that with successful implementation of socio-economic reforms and expanded cooperation within the BRICS+ framework, acceleration of economic growth rates is possible. The African continent, according to the model, shows high heterogeneity of economic trajectories: while, in certain conditions, such countries as Tanzania and Niger are potentially capable of exceeding 5 % annual growth rates, some other countries such as Botswana, according to the authors’ calculations, may not exceed 0.9 %. Overall, Africa has a high potential which, according to the model, can be realized with reduced political risks and strengthened institutional stability. The Islamic civilization is characterized by divergent dynamics, but the authors believe it could reach an average annual growth rate comparable to China’s, around 2.2–2.4 % by 2040. The North American civilization, including the USA and Canada, is forecasted to maintain stability at about 1.11 % per year, while Latin America, constrained by structural barriers, is likely to grow on average by 0.85 %. Developed countries such as Japan (0.04 %) and Western European states (an average of 0.72 %) show signs of stagnation and economic saturation. Overall, there is a trend of weakening dominance of Western civilizations and strengthening of the economic role of Eastern and Global South countries. Individual states that deviate from typical civilizational patterns, for example Israel (2.61 %) and Australia (1.84 %), according to the authors, may demonstrate relatively high growth rates due to technological flexibility, developed institutions, and a high degree of adaptation to global challenges. The scientific novelty of the study lies in integrating quantitative forecasting with philosophical-historical analysis, which allows interpreting economic dynamics as a reflection not only of resource and technological capabilities but also of stable socio-cultural constants – attitudes towards labor, the role of education, religious norms, and institutional stability.