Стратегическое планирование в условиях неопределенности: адаптивность ради устойчивости

Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации. 2023. Т. 4. № 61. С. 230–236.

Jakobson L. I.

When designing both governmental and business strategic plans nowadays, an overwhelming
uncertainty about the future state of natural and social environment needs to be considered. Businesses are gradually
shaping approaches to solve this problem and revising the known ideas of risk management. At the government
level, however, the same problem, which becomes even more challenging, urgent and demanding, is still
being solved less successfully. Any attempts to find the solution, mostly drawing on the Soviet planning experience,
and generally based on the planning of both detailed and aggregate output indicators for specific products are
futile. Approaches targeting outcomes are more adequate, provided that priority is given to the sustainability of
the plans rather than to the number of quantitatively defined targets. It is expedient, on the one hand, to avoid
including in the strategic plans a higher level of what may require adjustments for the sake of responding to new
challenges and opportunities. On the other hand, it is advisable to introduce response strategies in these plans,
including conditions and rules for the adjustment of plans at the other levels. This paper proposes one of the
instruments for risk management in conditions of uncertainty called “a ladder of sustainability.”

Keywords: управление рисками, risk management, uncertainty, неопределенность, стратегическое планирование, strategic planning, "ladder of sustainability", "лестница устойчивости"

Publication based on the results of: Evolution of self-organization and charity institutions (2024)