Предел долга (государственный долг развитых стран — XXI век)

Вопросы экономики. 2026. № 10. С. 5–27.

Бородаева В. А.

The paper offers a new perspective on the limit of government debt. It surveys the broad historical picture of the dynamics and character of government debt in the leading economies: the ratios of debt and debt service to GDP have risen to levels close to their half-century highs. In the regime that has taken shape after 2022, the limit manifests itself not on the notional scale of the debt- to-GDP level, but on the scale of price. The limit is tied to the critical servicing rate, beyond which debt growth becomes self-reinforcing, and is specific to each country in a given period. Placing the current debt within a historical sequence, we systematize the mechanisms for unwinding the debt burden and show that reserve issuers have limited room to use them today. The holder structure plays the key role: after 2022 central banks stopped reinvesting maturing bonds,budget deficits led to new issuance, and the interest rate risk that had been held for some fifteen years on price-insensitive balance sheets returned to market investors, who demand a premium for bearing it. This is formalized through the debt buffer — the gap between the critical and the market-required rates computed for the six largest advanced-economy borrowers. The calculations show that the limit of debt burden is not fixed: it descends toward the actual level of debt as the investor role of central banks recedes. The market pressure of 2024—2026 works through the rising cost of debt service.

Keywords: государственный долг, сбережения, процентные ставки, interest rates, savings, government debt, процентные ставки в экономике, устойчивость долга, debt sustainability, debt limit, debt service cost, holder structure, quantitative tightening, advanced economies, стоимость обслуживания долга, предел долговой нагрузки, развитые экономики, структура держателей