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July 9, 2026
HSE Economists Use Search Queries to Forecast Birth Rates
Researchers from the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences have shown that the accuracy of birth rate forecasts for Russia can be improved by almost 50% by incorporating the dynamics of online search queries related to pregnancy and childbirth into forecasting models. In the best-performing models, the forecasting error fell from 4.6% to 3.2%. The findings have been published in Populations and Economics.
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Does complementarity matter for the emergence of new specialization industries in the regions of Russia?

Regional Science Policy & Practice. 2023. Vol. 15. No. 9. P. 2126–2155.
Kutsenko E., Tripathi S., Tyurchev K.

The purpose of this article is to assess how internal and external complementarity linkages are responsible for the
emergence of new specialization industries in the context of Russian regions in the period from 2005 to 2015, taking
into account other factors that are significant for the emergence of such industries. The internal complementary linkages are measured by the share of new specialization industries related to existing specialization industries in the
same region. External complementarity linkages are measured by the share of new specialization industries related
to existing specialization industries in neighboring regions. Our data show that internal and external complementarity
linkages have a strong positive effect on the emergence of new specialization industries, with a greater effect had by
external ones. The number of specialization industries, the number of employees, market potential, gross domestic
expenditure on research and development (R&D), domestic patent applications, working population with a higher education, and the distance from the administrative center of a region to the nearest million-plus city also influence the
emergence of new specialization industries, while gross regional product (GRP) per worker, the share of companies
using the internet, and special economic zones do not. In addition, we assess the models that predict beginning of the process of diversification in a region. Finally, some policy measures are suggested for the creation of new specialization industries for Russia.

Research target: Economics and Management Political Science, International Relations, and Public Administration
Language: English
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Text on another site
Keywords: agglomeration effectsрегионы РоссииRussian regionscomplementarityкомплементарностьагломерационный эффектmarket potentialрыночный потенциал регионовnew specialization industriesновые отрасли специализации
Publication based on the results of:
The study of social and economic crises as triggers for accelerated science and technology development (2023)
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