Региональные программы материнского капитала: влияние на рождаемость в России

Экономика региона. 2023. Т. 19. № 4. С. 1077–1092.

Vakulenko E., Ивашина Н. В., Свистильник Я. О.

Since 2015, the birth rate in Russia has been declining, despite an active demographic policy of the state. Since 2007 the program of federal maternity capital (FMC) has been implemented. In 2011, some regions of Russia also began to introduce regional maternity capital (RMC). The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between fertility in the Russian regions and the RMC based on the Rosstat data for 1996-2020 using econometric models on panel data. The positive effect of the RMC paid for the second child on fertility was obtained. It is shown that this measure of support is most effective in the regions where the majority of the population professes orthodox, as well as in the regions with an initially higher total fertility rate (more than 1.7). The results showed that the amount of RMC payments for the second child, necessary to increase the total fertility rate on average in the Russia to the level of 1.7, needs to be increased to the level of FMC all other things being equal. It was found that there is a negative correlation between the birth rate and the average per capita income of the population, the housing costs, the unemployment rate and the pre-school enrollment, as well as a positive relationship with the FMC and the marriage rate. As a result, conclusions were made about the need to continue and strengthen maternity capital programs. Further areas of research may be devoted to determining the priority forms of providing RMC according to the intended usage.

Keywords: демографическая политика, рождаемость, fertility, материнский капитал, demographic policy, total fertility rate, maternity capital, суммарный коэффициент рождаемости, regional maternity capital programs, программы регионального материнского капитала