How Universal is the Cool Water Effect? Evidence from the Unlikely Case of Russia

2026.

Kravtsova M., Musaev A. U., Welzel C.

Elaborating on Welzel et al.'s "Cool Water Theory," our study zooms into the more limited (albeit still varied) framework conditions of Russia's huge territory. Within Russia's confines, we examine how the combination of moderately cool seasons with steady rain (i.e., Cool Water) affects sub-national areas' contemporary societal progress in two modernization indicators: material prosperity in the economic domain and emancipative values in the psychological domain. The analysis hinges on climate data, historical census materials and contemporary surveys across Russia's roughly fifty provinces. We find strong evidence that Russian regions with a more pronounced Cool Water Condition (CWC) relied early on labor-extensive forms of agriculture, which lowered reproductive pressures on women, visible in lower fertility rates. Lower historic fertilities, then, strengthened human capital formation, which eventually helped to create pathways towards higher material prosperity and stronger emancipative values. The Russian case, thus, confirms-within the confines of a more limited cultural universe-CWCinitiated modernization dynamics demonstrated before for global cross-cultural contexts. 

Keywords: economic development, fertility, climate, emancipative values, Cool Water Condition

Publication based on the results of: Comparative studies of culture and subjective well-being: differentiation and integration of societies in the context of global challenges (2025)